A Boko Haram suspect escaped from the grasp of the police few days after the president admitted that elements sympathetic to the sect had infiltrated the government. Regional Editor, OLAWALE RASHEED, dissects the insurgents as enemies within and without.

The Nigerian political power-play in the last six or so decades has witnessed many contests. But none has been so undeterminable as the Boko Haram low level insurgency. From the legendary Awo’s contestations with feudalistic power from the 1950s to the 80s to the military maradonic ping pong from 1984 to 1999, no national challenge compared remotely with this multi-dimensional disputed Islamic duel with the Nigerian nation.

While the nation has had fundamentalist Islamic uprisings in the past, nothing on this scale has ever happened. What is more, the sophistication, modus operandi and its intertwined relationship with power structure alarmed even the established Islamic bodies and the national political establishment. Many high up in the Nigerian society confessed that this is a new type of threat, the form which the Nigerian nation never experienced and, therefore, is unprepared for.

After several bloodlettings, the Commander-in-Chief himself came out boldly to tell the nation that Boko Haram is an enemy within and without. Speaking at a recent church service, President Goodluck Jonathan minced no word when he declared that Boko Haram was everywhere, including the three arms of government

“Some are also in the armed forces, the police and other security agencies. Some continue to dip their hands and eat with you and you won’t even know the person who will point a gun at you or plant a bomb behind your house,” he said.

Many analysts had expressed consternation at the admission of Mr. President. Many wonder why the president should make such admission in view of subsisting challenges. Little did many observers see of what the president saw and few, indeed, appreciate the candid viewpoints of the Commander-in-Chief fighting invisible enemies.

Less than a week after the presidential confession, very high profile evidence surfaced from an unusual quarter. A high profile suspect involved in the Christmas Day bombing arrested by the police escaped under the watchful eye of a police commissioner. What many are finding difficult to understand is why a person of Police Commissioner Zakari Biu’s stature, with his antecedent in the Abacha reign, should be put in charge of such a sensitive police department.

The president who had behaved like a seer was rightly incensed. Hence, a 24-hour ultimatum was clamped on the Inspector General of Police. Many analysts showed conviction that the problem may be within rather than without. The extent of the within is still under determination, while the without is still very hard to rule out.

The event of last week also appears to have corroborated the position of the much-hated American diplomat who, after a stint in Nigeria as ambassador, had turned out to be rabidly anti-Nigerian establishment and undisputedly, the most loathed ex-American envoy to Nigeria. In one of his many postings on Nigeria, Ambassador John Campbell affirmed that the sect’s backers and funding are internal arrangements. His position does not enjoy the support of many intelligence analysts who believe that the sect, in view of its goals and operations, has entrenched link with international jihadist movements.

As if to ascribe international dimensions to the insurgency, the American House of Representatives through its Committee on Homeland Security held a hearing on the Nigerian situation with commendable recommendations. A Nigerian news report quoted Rep Patrick Meehan, of having stated as follows after the hearing: “Historically, Boko Haram has been focused on Nigerian government targets. Until recently, Western intelligence services did not widely view Boko Haram as a potential threat.

“In the recent past, the U.S. intelligence community has underestimated the intent and capability of other terrorist groups to launch attacks against the U.S. homeland. These assessments and general assumptions nearly proved fatal.”

Despite the hearings and consequent recommendations, no concrete step has been taken by the American government, especially with respect to designating Boko Haram as a terrorist organisation.

While the international dimensions are very high on the agenda, the local picture occupied more attention as there is that feeling of tackling the seen before pursuing the unseen. Hence, some high profile names are being touted as being under security radar. Those names include former presidents, security chiefs and political bigwigs. Unconfirmed reports even said some have been quizzed, while others are being trailed.

What worries some observers is that the weight and reach of the said big men cast them in the mould of threats, if they are pushed to the wall. With obvious heavy contacts within the political and security establishments, the high profile targets are, indeed, part and parcel of the nation’s power apparatus. The option appears to be whether to confront them or seek their incorporation into the new status quo.
Those within the political/intelligence circles ponder severally on what the best option should be. Engagement strategies being ruminated over include possible regional security conference, political contract strategies, military bargaining application as well as outright search and destroy methodology.

Many, however, accepted the political and economic strengths of the president’s home base. As was witnessed in recent days, any attempt to truncate the subsisting Presidency may equally amount to shattering the weak national infrastructure.

A president from a zone producing over 90 per cent of the nation’s earnings has not only the political authority behind him, but also the attendant economic and moral persuasions. Going by the nation’s recent experience, it is not a lie that Nigeria cannot afford any shutdown of the Niger Delta. Hence, the low level insurgency has its limit, due also to the consequent multifarious ramifications for other zones in the future, after the Presidency might have moved to other zones.

The above background created the environment under which solutions are being proffered in analytical quarters. For one, many believed the search and destroy approach may not yield desired results due to its tendency to alienate the local population and wide collateral damages. This is the experience of the Americans in the bitter insurgency wars of Afghanistan and Iraq.

Another option tested and proven in previous elite competition for power is the political contract strategy where the shadowy bigwigs are directly engaged and offered options and opportunities of integration into the status quo. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo applied the option on several occasions and it worked. The good thing about that approach is that it ensures that all threatening elements are within the fold. Those that refused the olive branch are then met with the full scope of state powers.

The political contract strategy also touches on the zonal interest in the Presidency, especially the far away but very close 2015 presidential contest. The underlying issue is that beyond the subsisting occupant of the State House, there is deep-seated interest in knowing what next after 2015. Variuos rumors are circulating from an alleged David Mark pact to a South-East agenda. This, many analysts believe, provides armory to alleged disgruntled elements in the core North.

Even at that, other observers are quick to see any open position on the part of the president as politically incorrect. Others believed that the nation cannot be held hostage due to a zone missing the Presidency for few years when it had in the past ruled the nation for decades. Entering into any political pact is seen as surrendering to political blackmail. Whatever, there is a consensus that political solution in pact or whatever forms is a sine qua non to solving the insurgency.

Many analysts also believe the Presidency can no longer delay the need for urgent overhaul of the entire security apparatus.

Recently too, some international experts advocated that the Nigerian government should spearhead a tripartite international conference involving Nigeria, Chad and Niger republics. The focus is suggested to be how to combat cross-border terrorism which some experts believe is fuelling the Boko Haram uprising. Such gathering will work out the mechanism for coordinated border control and policing alongside deployment of troops along their common borders.

In this era of questionable escape and apparent sabotage, the president is, indeed, a seer. Multiple actions, including dispensing with some officials, may not be unusual in these unpredictable times.