Precisely eight days ago, the Federal Government removed subsidy on petroleum products. In this analysis, STEPHEN GBADAMOSI gives a detailed sector by sector scrutiny of what the Federal Government promised to do with the funds gained from the subsidy ouster, vis-à-vis the fears, hopes of Nigerians and what they really want the government’s economic policy to reflect.

If there was a section of the Nigerian populace that was not jolted by the surreptitious removal of fuel subsidy last Sunday by the Goodluck Jonathan-led administration, it was, perhaps, petroleum marketers and those who work in the core oil sector. Nigerians woke up with rude shock on that New Year day to learn that the subsidy they were still warning the government about had been removed. The previous night, petrol outlets had created artificial scarcity; they stopped selling before afternoon in many parts of the country. It was their sudden reappearance to sell in the morning of January 1, with an upward review of the price from N65 per litre that hinted the people that the deed had been done. By the time it fully dawned on the masses that a new regime of petroleum and other commodities’ prices had caught up with them, protests had begun in many parts of the country. As early as Monday, protesters had taken over major roads in Ilorin, Lagos, Kano and Abuja and by Tuesday, the protests had turned bloody, with a casualty said to have been recorded in Ilorin, Kwara State capital. The orgy of violence has continued, despite that the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) had announced that in conjunction with its counterpart in the trade sector, Trade Union Congress (TUC), it would commence full strike on Wednesday, 11 January, in defence of the Nigerian masses over the subsidy removal.

Government has, however, remained adamant, citing its earlier defence that it took the decision in the best interest of Nigeria and Nigerians. According to a policy paper of the government, termed Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment Programme (SURE PROGRAMME), seen by Sunday Tribune, “a robust programme structure has been developed to ensure adequate oversight, accountability and implementation of the various projects” meant to make the subsidy removal worth Nigerian’s expected pains. Among these projects, as highlighted by the FG, are; maternal and child health services; public works/women and youth employment programme; urban mass transit scheme; vocational training schemes; Niger Delta development project that involves the construction of the East-West road covering 338 kilometres; road infrastructure projects across the country that will span 1,326 kilometres; rail transport project that would course trough the length and breadth of the country, spanning 3, 877 kilometres in all; and water/agricultural projects involving 19 irrigation projects that will have total output of 28, 850 hectares and 422,000 tons of water per year.

Others are rural and urban water supply projects, totaling of at least 22, across the country; construction of the large Mambilla Hydropower project said to have the capacity to generate additional 2,600 megawatts of electric power as well as 17 other small and medium hydroelectric power projects that have cumulative capacity of 140.257 megawatts (these are said to be scattered across 15 states); provision of three new petroleum refineries in three states of the federation (Bayelsa, Kogi and Lagos) with total capacity to produce a total of 400, 000 barrels of petroleum per day (the refineries said to have capacity to employ thousands of workers each would be completed three years after contract award); building of critical ICT infrastructure in the country; extension of ICT connectivity to all tertiary institutions in the country through e-teaching and e-learning platforms, among others.

Findings by Sunday Tribune, however, suggest that the expectations of Nigerians are mostly at variance with the promises made by the Federal Government. It is noteworthy that most of what the government promises in the SURE PROGRAMME document are what development-bound Nigeria craves, it appears that the timing and mode of implementation do not go down well with the majority of the citizens.

Maternal/child health services
Under this area of human need, the FG promises to increase the utilization of maternal and child health service “by the rural population through both demand side (Conditional Cash Transfer) and supply side (provision of basic services by female community health workers) interventions.

Government also boasts that the intervention will primarily target pregnant women in rural areas “who will receive cash transfers based on the following criteria: (i) completion of three Antenatal Care Visit (ANC); (ii) delivery by a Skilled Birth Attendant (SBA); and (iii) receipt of zero-dose immunizations for their children.

“In addition, the Traditional Birth Attendants in the rural areas who accompany the pregnant women to the SBA will also receive token incentive, subject to certification by the local Ward Development Committee (WDC).”

The FG ‘social safety net programmes’ also promises human capital development in the health sector, particularly in the rural area, stating that “basic equipment and supplies will be provided to the rural Primary Health Care centres linked to their Ward Development Committees to ensure accountability.

“The production and deployment of trained midwives to local areas will be scaled up beyond the existing 1,000 centre currently operational under the Midwives’ Service Scheme.”

It also says thousands of female community and village health workers will be mobilized, trained and deployed in the rural areas “as part of this national effort to improve maternal mortality.”

But a number of Nigerians see these promises as not different from what had obtained from past administrations in the state. The contention is that despite that those past administration did not stop fuel subsidy and have in possession more revenue to do these things, the current government will tread their path of failure as a result of lack of political will and corruption.

A Lagos-based private medical practitioner who did not want his name in print told Sunday Tribune that “though it looks like a very good step to be taken on our ailing heath sector, particularly in the rural area, I think it needs so many other factors for the government to be successful.

“Look at the National Health Insurance Scheme, for example, it’s a laudable project which model is working for many other countries. How much success has Nigeria recorded from it?”

Professor Isaac Folorunso Adewole, Vice Chancellor, University of Ibadan and expert on maternal/child mortality health care services
“I have not read the document you are talking about. It will, therefore, be unfair of me to speak on a document I have not seen. But I can tell you that issues of maternal and child health are important to Nigeria. This is because Nigeria has one of the highest maternal mortality rates in the world. So, if you ask me if I support that government diverts funds realised from subsidy removal to take care of that, I would say yes. I have not read the document and I am also not in a position to say that the government would do what it says or not. But if you ask if the issues of maternal and child health are important, I would say yes.”

Dr. Anthony Omolola, National President, Association of General and Private Medical Practitioners of Nigeria (AGPMPN):
“In the first instance, I believe that we curb government excesses and ensure that our refineries are working and we consume exactly what they say we are consuming, I don’t think we need fuel subsidy removal.

“I think there must be government and fiscal discipline; we must curb corruption and ensure that the cabal is dispersed. The poor masses cannot suffer for the sin of the cabal that is not making things work. They are human beings. We cannot put the result of all these inefficiencies on the common man. Government should have the political will, whatever it takes, to do this for the first time that we have the capacity to disband this cabal and do what is right for the masses of Nigeria. That is my position and the position of the association I represent.”

Public works/women and youth employment programme and vocational training schemes
The FG said under this aspect of its programme, it intends to provide temporary employment for youths “in labour-intensive public works.” The FG further says what it terms “direct women and youth employment intervention” would target large numbers of unemployed youth from the poorest populations in each state of the federation and the FCT.
It adds that its public works programme would include such projects as; environmental works which would encompass execution of flood and erosion control efforts, waste disposal and sanitation efforts and tree planting activities to combat desertification.

There are also projections on health and education infrastructure which FG said would involve rehabilitation and maintenance of facilities in both sectors.
The FG promises that part of its efforts to tackle youth employment would be vocational training skills which it said would equip them with tools for obtaining gainful employment. The training centres, it said, would be located in each of the states of the federation and the FCT.

However, like in the other areas of the promise, Nigerians are cautious in accepting the promises of the government.

Former Special Adviser on Women Affairs to former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Chief (Mrs.) Titi Ajanaku, said:

“It could have been better, if the structures they are talking of had been budgeted for and put in place. Naturally, every Nigerian wants a better life, but the situation in Nigeria is very precarious. Majority of Nigerians are suffering. These few days, you can see the people have been in tears. Transport fare has skyrocketed. Even if you have a vehicle of your own, you would run it with petrol, not diesel.

“At a time when we had just entered the New Year; at a time when we were flabbergasted on the avoidable death of the worshippers who had gone to church on Christmas Day; and when we all went to church on December 31, praying to God for Nigeria to have a better 2012, only to be suddenly informed that from the very first day of the year, the cost of petrol had risen from N65 to N140. A lot of people who went home on holiday got stranded where they went.

“Now, the government may have good intention, but to my mind, this deregulation is ill-timed.

“But since I am not a soothsayer, I have no means of reading their minds. I want to believe that the government is sincere. The people will have to wait for what they have not seen, and looking at the past, the people naturally felt that governments had not been sincere with them. So, it is that crisis of confidence. Everybody wants better life. My prayer is that the government will have a rethink and the people sheathe their swords, so that we can hope for a better future.

Urban mass transit scheme and rail transport project
To alleviate the transportation challenges in the country, the FG promises in its SURE PROGRAMME document that a project of mass transit scheme would be introduced through the provision of “zero-interest loans to established transport operators for procurement of vehicles.”

On its plan on rail transportation which it says is pivotal to reducing the pains coming with the fuel subsidy removal, the FG says its component would entail “rehabilitation and restoration of our abandoned railway infrastructure and the construction of new standard gauge railway lines, thereby providing alternative means of transportation of people and goods across the country.” It says the rail routes would open the hintherlands to the coast to facilitate trade.

According to the government, the rail routes to be done would include; Lagos–Ibadan standard (dual) gauge, 174 kilometres; Abuja–Kaduna standard gauge, 187 kilometre; Port Harcourt–Umuahia–Enugu–Makurdi–Lafia–Kuru–Kafanchan–Jos–Bauchi–Gombe–Maiduguri, 2, 119 kilometres; Zaria–Funtua–Gusau–Kaura Namoda, 221 kilometre; Lagos–Ibadan–Ilorin–Jebba–Minna–Kaduna–Zaria–Kano, 1, 124 kilometres; and the Abuja light rail project of 52 kilometres. In total, the rail lines would be 3, 877 kilometres across the nation.

Juicy as these promises sound, some Nigerians are still not satisfied with it. A commercial bus driver based in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital, Kazeem Ayilara, said he wondered how the common man would benefit from this arrangement, “when the scheme would be handed over to established transport operators. How does it get to the like of me who uses the bus on the road without me suffering from the encumbrances of the middlemen?”

Alhaji Balarabe Musa, Second Republic governor of old Kaduna State and social critic, said:

“Their promises are not more credible than the promises of the Babangida-led administration over Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP). Secondly, since the Babangida era, there has been increasing decay, particularly, the level of stealing and corruption. The credible people like Christopher Kolade and Justice Alfa Belgore can’t do anything credible about the situation. In the first place, Kolade will not even be given the kind of power the late General Sani Abacha gave General Muhammadu Buhari over the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF). Look, this withdrawal of fuel subsidy has an immediate effect that borders on matters of life and death. Those who collect N18, 000 minimum will no longer be able to cope, because they would have spent about N10, 000 on transportation, while the remaining N8, 000 would not be enough even to feed them.

Worker will now be demanding for another minimum wage because this will no longer be adequate. Electricity has become so erratic that it will affect industries further and there will be job loss.”

Niger Delta development project/massive road infrastructure projects nationwide
Government also promises to focus greater attention to the development of the Niger Delta region with basic interest in improving the lives of the residents of the areas and providing access to refineries, seaports and agricultural areas of the Niger Delta. It identifies sections of the East-West roads that would be carried out as the Warri– Kaiama road, Port Harcourt–Ahoada road, Ahoada–Kaiama road and sections three and four of the East-West road project, totaling 338 kilometres.

While Nigerians would agree that the FG had, prior to the fuel subsidy removal, begun efforts on the Niger Delta infrastructural renewal project, the fear appears to be that what is contained in the new document might not be too different from what the Ministry of Niger Delta Affairs has already been handling.

Components of the nationwide infrastructure projects are roads and bridges including the Abuja–Abaji–Lokoja dual carriageway, Benin–Ore dual carriageway, Onitsha–Enugu–Port Harcourt dual carriageway, Kano–Maiduguri dual carriageway, Oweto Bridge construction and the 2dnd Niger Bridge construction, totaling 1,326 kilometres.

Water and agricultural projects/rural and urban water supply projects
FG said it plans to harness the nation’s water resources for national development, “through sustainable food production and water conservation.” It specifically promises to use this to actualize self-reliance in rice and other food crop production, a development that would see the country producing over 400, 000 tons of rice annually.

Among the irrigation projects listed by the government are; the Lower Anambra project in Anambra State; Adani Rice project, Enugu; Abakaliki (Item Ikwo), Ebonyi; Peremabiri, Bayelsa; the Itu Irrigation, Cross River State; Kolo, Bayelsa; Middle Ogun, Oyo State; Lower Ogun, Ogun State; South Chard, Borno; Lower Chad, Yobe; Chouchi, Adamawa; Lower Taraba (Donga), Taraba State; Doma, Nasarawa; Tada Shonga, Kwara State; Auyo, Jigawa; Longkat, Plateau; Bakolori, Zamfara; Gurar, Kaduna; and Zaura Polder in Kebbi State. All these would lead to cultivation of land in excess of 28, 850 hectares, according to the government.

Mallam Yusuf Ali, legal practitioner and Senior Advocate of Nigeria, said:

“There is no aspect of our life that does not need extra financing. And agric is the sector that can produce the largest employment. Food security is also critical. So, I don’t think it is wrong to spend the money on attainment of self-sufficiency in food production. We also need to generate a lot of employment. Having said that, there is a level to which you must trust your leaders. It is just unfortunate that since independence, our leaders have not been good enough to be trusted by their people, but we can put certain things in place. What happens in other places is that we can put in place a law, if you say you are using this money for something, so that it can be used for the exact purpose. So, that it becomes an impeachable offence, if you fail to do what you said you would do with the money.

“The committee set up by the president to oversee the money is also an initiative, but it can be backed up by the law.”

National Legal Adviser, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Dr. Muiz Banire, said:
“Our party’s position that government should immediately revoke its decision to remove the subsidy on fuel has not changed because of its implications on the masses. We are already seeing the implications. I’m extremely amused by the Federal Government’s posture that there is a committee set up to address the impact of the removal. You don’t set up a committee to look at the impact of what is happening; you should have done that long ago. They ought to have addressed the impact before removing the so-called subsidy.

“Right from the very first day, virtually everybody felt the harsh impact. Now, everybody is asking for salary increase and I don’t blame them; they can’t just cope with the transportation cost. It has had a multiplier effect on other sectors and prices of foods have gone up astronomically. I was amazed and embarrassed when two ministers said the removal of subsidy had got nothing to do with the rise in the cost of foodstuffs and movement of food from the North to the South. Isn’t it common sense that the effect will be far reaching? The drivers of the food need to get to work; they need to pay house rents and eat. The farmer, on their own, need other services as well. It’s really sad that came from the mouth of a minister of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. It’s really a hard time for all of us.”
Petroleum/NNPC projects

The FG also highlighted a critical area that seems to anger most Nigerians; construction of refineries. It notes in the document that the main objective of this component “is to restore and improve deomestic refining capacity and prevent shortfalls in supply of petroleum products. The integrity of the petroleum pipeline system will also be enhanced through additional investments and protective security.”

The key ingredient in this component if the FG’s promise of construction of new three new refineries under counterpart funding arrangement with the private sector.

The refineries, according to givernment, would be sited in lagos (with 200, 000 barrels per day processing capacity), Bayelsa (100, 000 barrels per day) and Kogi (100, 000 barrels per day), combined production capacity of which is 400, 000 barrels per day;

Other important areas highlighted by the FG in the economic revamping document include the construction of the large Mambilla Hydropower project and 17 other small and medium hydroelectric power projects and building of critical ICT infrastructure and extension of ICT connectivity to all tertiary institutions in the country.

Whether or not the government would be able to prove cynic Nigerians wrong and break away from the vicious cycle of the past is what the entire world is waiting to see.