THE zoning controversy which seized the nation’s political psyche on the emergence of President Goodluck Jonathan in May has acquired a life of its own. Now, a section of the political North had taken it upon itself to canvass the retention of the zoning formula contained in the PDP’s Constitution notwithstanding the emergence of Dr. Jonathan.

There is the belief that following the decision to zone the presidential ticket of the party to the South in 1999, the presidency will now be rotated between North and South. But in the build up to the 2003 Presidential election, aspirants from the North however, moved against the zoning arrangement. While the seat was expected to be reserved for Southern aspirants, two contestants from the North including Chief Bernabas Gemade and Alhaji Abubakar Rimi contested the primaries alongside President Olusegun Obasanjo.

Unlike the situation in the 1999 election process, when the nomination fees paid by Rimi was returned, in 2003, Rimi and Gemade were allowed to contest in the primaries, though Obasanjo retained the seat and won a second term in office.

Former National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP), Prince Vincent Ogbulafor had ignited the debate when, in what was seen as his personal survival strategy, he announced in February that even with the emergence of Jonathan as Acting President, power would remain in the North in 2011.

Ogbulafor’s comments, made after a meeting with the PDP Governors’ Forum, indicated that even if Jonathan were to emerge the substantive President, the party would still go ahead to present a Northern candidate for the 2011 election.

The statement was seen as a slight on the acting president by not just the Presidency but many stakeholders in the South South, where the new President hails from.

Since February, the debate has held in several circles.  It has taken a serious dimension, with the big fishes and the small fries all engaging one another in the unending argument.

Interested parties including the former Military President, General Ibrahim Babangida and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar came together to insist that the zoning arrangement must be maintained in favour of the North.

The argument is on two fronts. There are those who believe that since the zoning arrangement relied upon to produce the late President Umaru Yar’Adua in 2007 had been reversed by God, Jonathan should be allowed to continue in office and see through the Yar’Adua/Jonathan ticket. Others believe that the zoning arrangement should be maintained with outright rigidity and that another Northern candidate should be made to replace Jonathan in 2011. From these points several proposals have been propounded. Many have said that the zoning arrangement should be totally jettisoned to pave the way for the best candidate to emerge at all times. Others have called for a reversal of zoning arrangement in favour of the south, such that the seat can rotate to the North at a later date.

Months after Ogbulafor introduced the debate against the run of play at the time, the issue has refused to die. It is today at the root of the variety of political campaigns  regarding the 2011 election. Pro and anti-zoning groups have been emerging in their tens, just as the debate continues to take different dimensions on a daily basis.

As a response to the continuous outbursts against Jonathan’s bid to contest the 2011 election, the South South geo-poliotical zone launched the first coordinated front in the unfolding debate last Monday. The region, in a meeting of stakeholders which featured five of the six governors, stated categortically that President Jonathan should immediately announce his intention to contest the nation’s number one seat in 2011 and that the zone would back him to succeed.

The stakeholders meeting of the South South also raised  the argument to other fronts. While some of the participants wanted a clear cut strategy of  achieving Jonathan’s presidency in 2011, others advocated an engagement formula that would assure other segments of the Nigerian nation that the South South means well by promoting Jonathan’s presidency.

Governors of the South South including Rivers state governor, Hon. Rotimi Amaechi, his Bayelsa state counterpart, Mr. Timipre Silva, Akwa-Ibom state governor, Obong Godswill Akpabio, Delta state governor, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan and the Cross River State governor, Senator Liel Imoke had converged in Port Harcourt, the capital of Rivers state to host other political leaders from the zone. 

There were 40 delegates from each of the six states and governor Adams Oshiomhole’s absence was understandable. The man belongs to the opposition Action Congress (AC), while some political hands believe that he is already working with a rival aspirant, Gen. Babangida in the 2011 project. But leaders from Edo state including Chief Tony Anenih, removed governor, Senator Oserhiemen Osunbor, Senators Odion Ugbesia and Yisa Braimoh as well as honourable members were present to represent the state.

The Communiqué released by the chairman of the Communiqué drafting committee, Prof. Juluis Ihonvbere indicated that the South South was in tune with the decisions earlier reached at the Northern Political summit, led by Chief Solomon Lar, and which asked the North to recognize the constitutional rights of Dr. Jonathan to contest the 2011 election.

Chief Lar, had in a summit held in Kaduna mid July, asked the North to recognize President Jonathan’s constitutional rights to contest the election as a Nigerian and rate such rights above any zoning arrangement of the PDP.

The South South said it will engage other parts of Nigeria on the need to support President Jonathan for the top job in 2011. Governor Silva, who said he viewed the project as his own said he was ready to flag off series of meeting with other top Nigerians on the need to return President Jonathan into office in 2011. Governor Uduaghan also believed that the other zones should be lobbied into supporting Jonathan. Governor Akpabio said his  state was the first to recognize the need to support Jonathan for 2011 and that the stakeholders in the state had presented a document to that effect to Jonathan when he paid an official visit to the state recently. Other governors spoke in the same vein.

Former Bayelsa state governor, DSP Alamieyeseigha, Chief Tony Anenih, Chief Edwin Clark and Chief MT Mbu, all spoke in similar veins. They all retorted that it was payback time for the South South for all the support it had given the North since 1960. Anenih said that the South South was supporting Jonathan because he is a good candidate that will substain the policies he jointly initiated with the late Yar’Adua. He also called on the North to reciprocate the long standing support of the South South.

Just as the South South stakeholders were concluding their rally for Jonathan, governors of 19 Northern states met in Kaduna to appraise the zoning debate. At the end of the meeting, 10 of the governors voted for the retention of zoning, while seven voted for opening up of the political environment to pave the way for Jonathan to contest.

It was a meeting that upped the ante, but one which also stood on two planks. While ten of the governors voted for zoning, the communiqué also concluded that the President is free to contest the election.

The fear among Jonathan’s opponents is however to the effect that he would easily gain visibility if he contests as an incumbent president and that, to their disadvantage. It thus appear that the battle for 2011 is really not about the zoning formula, but the search for an exclusive zone by interested aspirants, who believe that they stand little or no chance against an incumbent, who so far is garnering goodwill.