AHEAD of the 2011 polls, Delta State presents an intriguing scenario. Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan surely wants to run for a second term. That is constitutionally guaranteed. It also makes sense that the governor returns to power on the platform of his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), for the simple reason that since the elections of 2007, the PDP has literally been the only party functioning in the state. The  2007 elections had seen the Action Congress (AC) and the Democratic Peoples Party (DPP) making inroads into the state courtesy of the political stature of their gubernatorial candidates: Mr.Peter Okocha and Chief Great Ogboru respectively. Both parties (AC and DPP), however, have fizzled out. The parties went under after their candidates lost the suits they filed to challenge the election of Uduaghan.

Today, the only party you hear about in Delta State is the PDP, notwithstanding the internal wrangling within the state chapter of the party. Whereas the PDP, as a platform, is attractive enough for Uduaghan to return to the Asaba Government House, the governor is already walking a road strewn with landmines in his re-election bid.

Analysts speak of an attempt to cage him so that he does not pick the ticket of the PDP. Even if he picks the ticket by default, he may still not return, going by the formidable forces arrayed against him. The scenario of 2007 appears to be replaying as the same political forces tried to stop Uduaghan only for the then outgoing governor, James Ibori, his godfather, to play a fast one on them by installing him. The only difference this time is that Ibori is clearly out of the way.

The former strong man of Delta politics is not only in far away Dubai , United Arab Emirate, where he ran to after escaping from the EFCC, he is also facing fraud charges.

The former Attorney General, Michael Aondoakaa, did his best to protect him. But the former Delta governor’s greatest undoing was the disdain with which he treated the then Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan, while the Yar’Adua presidency lasted. Whereas Jonathan was the highest-ranking person from the South-South in the government of Yar’Adua, Ibori was said to have presented himself as the number one politician from the zone and he was so treated by Yar’Adua such that he (Ibori) undermined Jonathan. But the death of Yar’Adua and ascendancy of Jonathan to the presidency changed all that .

The coming to power of Jonathan was the opportunity the EFCC needed to look into the fresh allegations of graft committed by Ibori while in office as Delta governor, forcing him to  flee to Dubai where he is now being tried. The net effect of the travails of Ibori is the collapse of his political structure on which Uduaghan rode to power. Besides, Ibori has become an albatross that is dangerous for anybody seeking political office to associate with.

Although the Delta governor is believed to have tried to build a structure for himself in the wake of the Ibori problem, it is doubtful if the structure can match the opposition’s determination to deny him the ticket of the PDP ahead of the 2011 gubernatorial poll. The opposition, led by elder statesman, Chief Edwin Clark, only recently approached the PDP national leadership with the demand to dissolve the Peter Nwaoboshi- led state Executive Council and put in place a caretaker committee that will conduct fresh wards, local governments and state congresses.

The opposition’s demand is an ingenious way of upstaging the exco put in place by Uduaghan as a means of controlling the state PDP machinery preparatory to the 2011 polls.  The machinery is about to slip from his hands. Another minus for the Delta governor is his administration’s alleged marginalisation of the Urhobos, the largest ethnic group in the state, both in terms of appointments and distribution of projects. Whereas Uduaghan belongs to the minority Itsekiri group, the understanding of the Urhobos when Ibori imposed the governor on the people in 2007 is that he would be fair to all the ethnic groups in the state.

Yet what has happened in the last three years in Delta is the cry of marginalisation by the Urhobos amid the allegation that the Itshekiris get all the plum appointments and most of the projects go to that (Itshekiri) area. The scale seems to weigh heavily against Uduaghan as 2011 approaches going by the opposition’s onslaught and the Urhobos’ bid to reverse their perceived marginalisation and return one of their own to the Asaba Government House.

The question has inevitably arisen.’If not Uduagban for re-election, who else? ‘The question is already being answered affirmatively by Delta people and the answer points in the direction of Ovie Omo-Agege, an Urhobo with robust political credentials. Having once been the powerhouse of the Delta government by the virtue of his appointment as secretary to the state government, the cap for the gubernatorial election in the state next year perfectly fits him. A man, who understands the dynamics of government as they relate to Delta and knows the people of the state inside out because he is a grassroots politician, the people of the state are zeroing in on him for the top job. Coming from Delta central, his Urhobo people will support him.

The seeming consensus on the candidature of Omo-Agege for the Asaba Government House is such that notable PDP members in the two other senatorial zones in the state are rooting for him. A communiqué issued at the end of a town hall meeting by PDP Delta North Stakeholders Forum  put the race  forDelta 2011 in proper perspective: “Delta North PDP stakeholders forum hereby, after due consultations with other ethnic nationalities in Delta State, nominate Barrister Ovie Omo-Agege as our choice for the governor of Delta State come 2011.

“A similar endorsement has been given by PDP Delta South stakeholders. Omo-Agege appears inclined to yield to the pressure on him to vie for the Delta number one position. At a meeting hosted by the Urhobo caucus of the PDP, the urbane politician said he would make his position public after due consultations. The scenario in Delta today is that the people believe the best man for the gubernatorial election in 2011 is Omo –Agege. This is an unassailable choice that the politician cannot refuse. The onus lies on him to accept the offer. Omo-Agege’s antecedents show that he is a performer and will not disappoint the people.

• Ugbe lives in Ughelli, Delta State.

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