have intensified measures that would ensure that the president maintains a clear win in five of the six geo-political zones during the presidential primaries.

trategists in the presidential camp, who have been meeting regularly in the past three weeks, have designed measures by which the president will win the primaries of his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), convincingly in five of the nation’s six geo-political zones.

Sources close to the administration confirmed that the presidential think tank team has identified the problem areas and proffered appropriate solutions that would clear impediments to the president’s emergence as the PDP candidate.

President Jonathan, who is the head of the think tank team, has remained the last bus stop and the clearing house for all knotty issues. While the team has identified impediments in zones such as North West, North East and North Central, it has also gone ahead to pinpoint the president’s strengths in those zones.

A zonal analysis of the unfolding scenario in the PDP indicates that the president’s camp is in comfortable control in the South-West, North-Central, South-South, South-East and North-East with pockets of dissent still noticeable in states like Kwara, in North-Central, Gombe in North-East, Rivers and Cross River in the South-South and a number of North-West states.  But sources said that the unity in the presidency between President Jonathan and Vice President Namadi Sambo would see the duo coming out tops during any contest.

Why Western powers are behind Jonathan
It was gathered that Western countries, who have been monitoring the situation in Nigeria have since concluded on the need to support President Goodluck Jonathan to remain in office till 2015.

Sources revealed that Western countries including the United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK), Canada, France and Germany have concluded on their support for Jonathan early in December 2009, when the true report of the health condition of the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua was known to them.  

The Western countries had then decided that to maintain constitutional order and peace in Nigeria, the then Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan must be strengthened to take over the reins of power.

Sources confirmed that the Western countries took more than a passing interest in Nigeria because of the country’s strategic placement in African and world affairs and emissaries from many of the countries visited Nigeria’s seat of power between December 2009 and early January 2010 to pledge support for Jonathan.

As the Acting President of Nigeria, the United States had extended invitation to President Jonathan to visit the US and was hosted by President Barack Obama. The red carpet was actually rolled out for Jonathan during that visit, which originally was not designed as a state visit.

Emissaries from Western countries continued to visit Jonathan as Acting President. They were said to have continued to guarantee him access to the true information about the health of the then ailing President Yar’Adua, even while such information was being closely guarded by members of the dismantled cabal.

A source said that Jonathan was openly commended for his leadership of Nigeria and steering the country from the path of destruction during the crisis that engulfed the prolonged illness of the late President Yar’Adua. Sources also confirmed that the former British Prime Minister, Mr. Tony Blair, told a gathering of Western powers who hosted Jonathan during the US trip that the Nigerian leader needed to be commended “for the wise, calm and skilful way he has managed Nigeria out of a potentially damaging crisis.”    It was gathered that subsequent discussions by the world leaders have confirmed the need to ensure Jonathan remains in office till 2015.

“The Western powers are going to show their hands more clearly as the election draws nearer. But they have resolved to back Jonathan as the president. They have also isolated the possible dangers of not supporting the president. The whole situation is clearly spelt out in their analysis,” a diplomatic source said on Saturday.

FG takes stock of EFCC’s performance
Following the multi-dimensional discussions between leaders of Western countries and Jonathan as well as reports of their emissaries to the Nigerian president on his assumption of office as substantive president on May 6, the issue of performance of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) was raised.  

The question has been whether the incumbent chairman of the commission, Mrs. Farida Waziri, could do the job, while questions were being raised as to whether the nation’s anti-corruption war was being made to suffer. It was, however, gathered that the presidency had started compiling a dossier of the performance rating of the commission, especially following recent insinuations that the body was being used to harass political opponents. Some critics of EFCC’s recent moves have attempted to politicise the commission’s decision to storm some states in continuation of the anti-corruption war.

The government has ordered the full compilation of the said “sins” of Farida, a source said at the weekend. The source disclosed that the offences of the commission appear to be moving from the perceived ineptitude to allegations of political interference by some politicians.

It was gathered that the president was worried by the attempt by some politicians to link him with the activities of the EFCC, whereas he had consistently assured the commission that he would never interfere with its operations.

Rivers State governor, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi, said on Friday that some forces were using the EFCC to intimidate political opponents ahead of the 2011 election. Though he did not mention the name of President Jonathan, some of the affected states wanted to paint the scenario that the president was tele-guiding the EFCC.

”President Jonathan has ordered a comprehensive analysis of the EFCC situation. He wants to know what led to his name being linked with the onslaught of the EFCC on some states even when he has consistently assured that he will not obstruct the commission in its work. He has also ordered a full compilation of the dossier of key operatives in the anti-corruption war. The idea is to fish out fifth columnists and those who could be constituting impediments to the anti-corruption crusade,” a source said on Saturday.

Situation report in the geo-political zones ahead PDP primaries

South-West zone
The Jonathan camp received a big boost from the zone just about a week ago when leaders of the PDP in the six states of the South-West adopted Jonathan as their candidate for the 2011 polls.  The PDP in the zone is led by former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who is seen as the benefactor of all the PDP elected officials in the zone.

Obasanjo’s antics in 2003 ensured that the PDP made an inroad into the South-West, leading to the party’s victory in five of the six states in the zone. While the bulk of the delegates from the zone are loyalists of the former president, a snag appeared with the lukewarm attitude of at least two of the five state governors, who are believed to be close to General Ibrahim Babangida. But signals across the zone indicate a liking for the candidature of President Goodluck Jonathan.

The governors and leaders of the PDP apparently latched on to the widespread view in the zone that Jonathan should be allowed to continue in office beyond 2011, when they announced his adoption. Apart from the open campaign for Jonathan by the governor of Oyo State, Chief Adebayo Alao Akala, loyalists of IBB in the state are near complete outsiders in the party.

Alhaji Arisekola Alao is a strong believer in the IBB project but he is not a politician. He is supported by Alhaji Hazeem Gbolarunmi, aide of the late Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu. But Gbolarunmi is not an automatic delegate to the national convention and he could find it difficult to get into the list of elected delegates as well.  

In Osun, Ondo and Lagos States, there are no notable Babangida die-hard loyalists. In Ekiti State, where a former Minister of Education is believed to be silently working for IBB, the former Ambassador is also not one of the automatic delegates to the convention.

Governor Segun Oni and the party hierarchy in the state are in support of Jonathan. In Osun, where many had indicated that Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola’s long standing relationship with Babangida could create problems for Jonathan’s ambition, the grassroots of the PDP in the state are fully supporting the president. Governor Oyinlola during the South West PDP meet last week openly expressed his loyalty to the incumbent President Jonathan.

Besides, the Osun situation is also being helped by other friends of Jonathan and Sambo in the state. Chairman of Senate Committee on Appropriation, Senator Iyiola Omisore, is regarded as a longstanding ally of the Vice President, who is not ready to dump his friend at this critical time.  The situation in Ogun is not too different from that of Osun. Governor Gbenga Daniel of Ogun State, who picked a senatorial form last week is said to have settled to support Jonathan.

South-South zone
There is a renewed move to ensure that the South-South Peoples Assembly (SSPA) take over the campaign for Jonathan in the zone in the face of some governors who are seen as lukewarm to his ambition.  

There are questions that notwithstanding the open declaration of support for the president, about three governors may not be fully committed to Jonathan yet.

Some forces have also raised the question of the quarrel between First Lady Patience Jonathan and Amaechi recently as a source of concern between the president and the Rivers State governor. But sources said that Amaechi is fully aware that IBB and his predecessor in office, Dr. Peter Odili, are working together and that the likely joint ticket of the duo could undo him in his second term ambition.

Although the president does not have problems securing the votes of PDP delegates in Edo, Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa States, some sources said that the hazy situation around the politics of Governor Sylva remains an issue.

While Akwa-Ibom State people have adopted Jonathan, the governor, Obong Godswill Akpabio, has also taken the battle to elect Jonathan as his personal battle.

The situation in Bayelsa is such that President Jonathan could easily cart home the votes of all delegates from the state, but sources said that the political future of the governor should be resolved to erase any sign of crisis from the president’s home state. Besides the fact that Jonathan is from the zone, the unity of purpose among top political leaders from the South-South in pursuing the Jonathan cause appears a big plus.

Chief Tony Anenih is now one of the arrowheads of the campaign. His perennial foe in Edo PDP, Dr. Sam Ogbemudia, has found a common friend in him with the Jonathan candidacy, just like Admiral Mike Akhigbe, whose political godson, is the Chief of Staff to the president. Elder statesman, Chief Edwin Clark, and other leaders across the zone are fully supporting the president. The campaign is being made to take a national outlook, rather than the campaign for an Ijaw person as president.

South-East zone
Notwithstanding the perceived delay in openly endorsing Jonathan by leaders of the zone, it has become clear that the zone was waiting for September 18 to fully support the president.

President Jonathan has ensured that the zone retains the post of national chairman of the party, whereas there was the thinking that the position should move to the North when he emerged the substantive president on May 6. The recent entry of the governor of Abia State, Chief Theodore Orji, into the PDP is also a plus for Jonathan, who was said to have orchestrated the deal.

Political leaders of the zone who are going to form the bulk of the majority of the delegates to the primaries are reportedly fully in support of Jonathan. Orji’s entry into PDP in Abia State has united traditional foes in the politics of the state and it appears that the party would be heading for an election as a united entity for the first time since 1999.

Leaders of the PDP in Enugu, Imo, Ebonyi and Anambra States appear also unanimously in support of Jonathan, with leaders such as the Deputy Senate President, Senator Ike Ekweremadu, angling to retain their positions in 2011.

Jonathan also can boast of traditional and long standing friends from the South-East. Former deputy governor of Abia State, Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe, is one of the leading friends of Jonathan in the South-East, who have taken the campaign for the president  to the four corners of the zone.

North-Central zone
There   are a number of battles to fight here. Though the president will win here convincingly according to felers from his camp, there are issues as to the candidature of General Babangida, who hails from Niger State and Governor Bukola Saraki, who hails from Kwara State. Saraki is yet to come out openly against Jonathan, but reports being daily received in the presidency indicate that the Kwara State governor might be ready to contest.

A source said that the governors have never taken a position to oppose Jonathan as some of them have said that the practice in presidential system is to field the incumbent, but reports have been indicating that Saraki interest could make the Governors’ Forum to ditch Jonathan. But sources said that the presidential think tank team has advocated the resolution of the Saraki issue.

It was gathered that the president could engage the chairman of the Governors’ Forum in direct talks, while the president also directly enters into talks with the governors. Already, the PDP had stopped any further action on the reforms which were considered as offensive and targeted at governors.

Already, Jonathan has full support from Nasarawa, Kogi, Benue and Plateau States in the zone. He is expected to few of the delegates from Niger while Kwara will be decided after the series of ongoing political engineering.

The situation in Benue State is playing out 100 per cent in favour of Jonathan, following the consensus between Senate President David Mark and Governor Gabriel Suswam. Mark and Suswam are interested in returning to office in 2011 but Marks’ ambition will be completely shot down with Babangida as candidate.

North-East zone
The story of Gombe State governor, Alhaji Danjuma Goje, is similar to that of Governor Bukola Saraki in Kwara State. The duo are completing their second terms in office in 2011.

While some forces around the president had recognised Goje as a possible threat earlier in the year, one of their mutual friends, who is also close to the former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, was said to have intervened to calm the situation. Goje has been asked to design his political future and get back to the president.

The situation in Bauchi State, however, appears in favour of Jonathan. While Governor Isa Yuguda is not opposed to Jonathan, his only headache is the Minister of FCT, Senator Bala Mohammed, who appears to have constituted himself to an opposition.

In Adamawa, notwithstanding the plan by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to contest the primaries, the majority of the delegates may support Jonathan. because of the Nyako influence The same scenario is likely in Taraba, Yobe and Borno.

North-West zone
The zone is regarded as a critical area. It lost President Yar’Adua in May and the constitution has foreclosed a situation where the zone can produce Yar’Adua’s replacement since the vice president is expected to take office whenever the president dies.

Though it has been compensated with the position of vice president, with the emergence of Alhaji Namadi Sambo some politicians still play up the zoning issue. States such as Kebbi, Sokoto and Kaduna appeared set to give the Jonathan/Sambo ticket a clear lead, while the Jonathan team is doing more work in states like Jigawa, Niger, Kano and Zamfara.

Jonathan was described as a known face to top politicians in Zamfara and Sokoto States even before he became president. In Kaduna State, he can rely on the popularity of Vice President Namadi Sambo, the incumbent governor and the youthful and organisational ability of the former FCT Minister, Mallam el-Rufai.

El-Rufai and some leaders of the zone were said to have argued in close quarters that the North was not ready to take power in 2011 and that it would be better to back Jonathan for four more years while the zone goes back to gather itself together for leadership from 2015. Those who hold this view were said to have refused to persuade the like of Babangida and Atiku out of the 2011 race because of the feeling that once they contest and lose in 2011, they won’t come back again.

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