DESPITE the clean bill of health given President Goodluck Jonathan by the National leadership of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to contest the presidential election in 2011, there are strong indications that the president may have to do more if he is to clinch the party’s ticket at the end of the day.

Investigations by Sunday Tribune over the weekend revealed that several landmines that may work against the actualisation of the president’s ambition to succeed himself beyond 2011 now dot the root to his political ambition.

DR OKWESILIEZE NWODO:
The activities and public statements credited to the national chairman of the party in the last few weeks, analysts opined, are capable of working against the ambition of the president. Nwodo, had in the last few weeks, made some statements which have no doubt pitched the North against the ambition of the president. Shortly after his assumption of office, Nwodo was reported to have nailed the coffin of the much touted zoning arrangement when he publicly declared that there was no zoning in the party only to recant 24 hours later, claiming  that he was quoted out of context. In view of this, Nwodo may have succeeded in making more enemies than friends in the North for the president.

Nwodo has also courted the wrath of the state governors over his reform programme, which appeared skewed against the governors. Issues such as the on-line registration of members and the reduction of delegates under the control of the governors are some of the reasons the governors are now calling for his removal.

GOVERNORS:
If there is any group that President Jonathan and his supporters need to actualise his presidential dream, it is the governors but checks revealed that across the six geo-political zones, it is doubtful if the president can boast of the support of most of the governors. Governors from the North are already divided as far as the Jonathan project is concerned. There are also strong indications that some of the Northern governors, who are currently on the side of the president, will withdraw their support when the chips are finally down.

The story is the same in the South East states. The zone is said to be divided on whether to support Jonathan or accept the position of a vice president which is being dangled before the zone by one of the presidential hopefuls from the North.

The South-South zone, which incidentally is the base of the president, appeared balkanised due to moves by some powerful individuals in the states to deny some of the state governors return ticket in 2011. The affected governors are said to have made contacts with other parties so as to use their platforms. One of the governors in the zone is said to have concluded plans to run as a vice president in 2011. He was said to have specifically demanded that one of the security aides attached to former First Lady, Hajia Turai Yar’Adua, be redeployed to the Government House in his state, a move that was meant to reassure the North that he was solidly behind the North.  

Specifically, the President’s state, Bayelsa, is said to be embroiled in crisis on whether the governor will run on the PDP platform. The governor is said to have threatened to move to the Labour Party (LP) if the PDP becomes too hot for him. It is also important to note that Bayelsa is one of the states that governorship election will not be conducted in the 2011 election.

The question then is, with the crisis currently rocking the president’s state and the Governor Timipre Sylva’s threat, will the state rally support for its son?

The South-West zone, which ordinarily would have constituted a safe haven for the president because of the influence of his godfather, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, may not also be easy afterall.

For instance, Lagos State is the headquarters of the opposition Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).

Since 1999, the PDP has also not been able to make any inroads into the state and the history may not change given the popularity and acceptance of the ACN among Lagosians. Sunday Tribune reliably learnt that at least two govenors from the core Yoruba speaking states are said to be rooting for the former military dictator, Ibrahim Babangida.

IBB/ATIKU:
The duo are known to be students of power politics whose declaration of interest in the presidential contest should not be underrated nor treated with levity. Their entrance into the race is seen in the political circles as a grade one challenge to test the popularity and acceptance of the president. Babangida ruled Nigeria for close to nine years and his network of associates which he made while in office cut across the length and breadth of the country and majority of these people are now members of the PDP.

Atiku was the nation’s number two man for eight years under former President Obasanjo. Like Babangida, his chain of friends and supporters are all over the country and are ready to be his foot soldiers when he is finally allowed to vie for the party’s ticket later in the year. They have upped the stakes as far as 2011 presidential election is concerned. It is expected that the race for the office of the president would become more interesting if the duo are denied the PDP ticket and are forced to move to actualise their dreams on the platform of another political party.

MALLAM NUHU RIBADU:
There are strong indications that the former czar of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) is being touted to fly the flag of the ACN. His support base is said to be mainly the youth, who see in him as as the hope for a better future. His backers are said to have penciled a prominent and popular politician from the South East zone as Ribadu’s running mate. This, analysts argued, is an attempt to further weaken the support base of Jonathan in the zone.

JAMES IBORI, ET AL:
It is a known fact that former governor of Delta State, Chief James Ibori, who is currently wallowing in police detention in Dubai did a yeoman job in the emergence of former President Umar Yar’Adua in 2007. Before the demise of Yar’Adua, Ibori was said to be moving towards the non return of Jonathan as Yar’Adua’s running mate. But the twist in fate saw Ibori now at the receiving end of the Jonathan onslaught. Back in Delta State, elder statesman and self imposed godfather of the president, Chief Edwin Clark, is not giving Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan a breathing space because of the governor’s relationship with Ibori. Sunday Tribune reliably gathered that despite his being out of the state, Ibori still controls the grassroots and this was demonstrated with the stout resistance put up by youths in his home town, Oghara, when the EFCC attempted to arrest him. Delta State from the foregoing, except something dramatic happens, may be difficult to be dragged in to support Jonathan. It is also instructive to note that members of the Yar’Adua kitchen cabinet and his foot soldiers who were sacked and subsequently sidelined by the president are lurking around to take their own pound of flesh. In fact, they are said to constitute the bulk of those spearheading the anti-Jonathan campaign in the North and in the South- South.  

HISTORY & ZONING:
In Nigeria’s political history, no politician from the minority zone has ever contested and won the presidential election. History is therefore not in favour of Jonathan. In fact, he is the first politician from the zone to have risen to the position of the vice president, acting president and now president. It will therefore be a herculean task for the minority zone to attempt to re-write the political history of the zone.

A member of the PDP Board of Trustees, Isyaku Ibrahim, stated this much in an interview. According to him, “if he comes out, that means he is not going to win. I am so sure, because it has never happened in the political history of the world, where a minority will override the wishes of the majority.” And to add to his problems, his party could  not kill the zoning formula, which would have eased his presidential path to 2011.

HIMSELF:
The President, to most Nigerians, will be the architect of his fortune or misfortune depending on what he has been able to achieve in office as a substantial president before the election. Investigation by Sunday Tribune revealed that in as much Nigerians would want to support his ambition, they are yet to see any concrete achievement of the president since his assumption of office, 100 days ago.

They argued that what they have seen in the last few months of his administration are just policy statements which have not been translated into what would benefit the common man. Akin to the above is the naked truth that the president, throughout his political career, has never campaigned nor contested any election on his own, he therefore lacks the experience needed for such exercise.

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