Governorship election will be held in Ondo State later in the year. YINKA OLADOYINBO, in this report, looks at the emergence of the opposition in the past and what the situation looks like just 10 months to the poll.

The year 2012 will go down in the history of Ondo State, as a year in which another election will be held to elect a governor that will lead the state for another four years. To this end, political parties and politicians in the state have been making moves and also strategising to ensure they win the election and govern the state as from February 2013.

Many of the parties have set up contact and mobilisation teams to recruit more members into their fold, since politics is a game of number. In doing this, the Labour Party (LP) and the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) seemed to be reaping and raking in more members with each passing day, but the LP seems to be having more influx of members, while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) appears to be losing its members on a daily basis.

However, the politics of the state is such a dynamic one which has always thrown up many intrigues and postulations each time an election that concerns the entire state approaches. The politics of the opposition in the state has always been obvious and in some cases strong such that it could almost be certain where the pendulum will swing when an election is held.

Since the advent of the present republic, the opposition parties in the state have always positioned themselves as the alternative and thereby people of the state look up to them with such perception. In all the cases, the opposition has always had a personality as the rallying point, as the head and as somebody they can look forward to as the next governor of the state.

In 1999, Dr. Olusegun Agagu of the PDP contested with Chief Adebayo Adefarati of the Alliance for Democracy (AD). Adefarati won the seat and Agagu was made the Minister of Aviation by President Olusegun Obasanjo.  As of that time, PDP and AD were the only party with structures in the state and the PDP went back to the drawing board to strategise towards another election in 2003.

In that setting, Agagu became the rallying point and the leader of the party and by extension the leader of the opposition in the state. As a minister of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, he used his influence, power and resources to stabilise the opposition and as of 2001, it was obvious that Agagu would lead the onslaught against Adefarati and the AD and there was no controversy about that.

Two years to the election, the ruling AD knew they had a fight at hand and would have to go extra mile to beat the PDP, ably led by Agagu. Every human and financial resources of the party were deployed to the activities aimed at dislodging the AD from Alagbaka Government House.

Apart from this, being a minister that also had the ears of the president, some federal projects were influenced into the state and this further made Agagu to be the talking point in the political scene, particularly in the camp of the opposition. So, when it was time for election in 2003, it was not difficult for PDP to pick him as its candidate for the election. He contested again with Adefarati, won and became the governor of the state for the next six years.

Again, it was certain that the tenure of those elected in 2003 will lapse in 2007, the politics of the opposition started in earnest and by 2005, it was obvious that the incumbent, Dr. Olusegun Mimiko, was the rallying point of the opposition.

Mimiko had wanted to be governor in 2003, but could not achieve his ambition as he was schemed out based on the zoning policy of the AD.

The party decided to zone the governorship to the north on the day the primary was to be held and because he is from the central senatorial district, he was disqualified from the race. The decision made him to team up with the PDP to realise Agagu’s ambition in 2003. Mimiko’s joining the PDP was based on his belief that it would pave way for him to realise his ambition of becoming the governor in 2007.

But by mid-2004, when it was obvious that Agagu would seek a re-election in 2007, the opposition started to gather again and gradually began to strategise and permutate on how to win the election in 2007. At this point, Mimiko became the rallying point and the figure being looked up to as a replacement for Agagu come 2007.

While serving as the Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Mimiko’s body language has always shown what he wanted to become the governor and the people that believed in him did not leave anybody in doubt about the politics of the opposition.

However, the politics of the opposition became clearer when Mimiko, by providence, became a minister of the Federal Republic in 2005. With this position, which removed him from being a cabinet member in the state, he was able to organise the opposition in a manner that could ensure victory for them in the election. When he realised that he might not be able to achieve his ambition within the structure of the PDP, he joined the LP and the party was inaugurated in the state in December 2006, barely four months to the election. Being the rallying point, it was easy for him to become the candidate of the party and now he is the incumbent governor of the state.

However, less than 10 months to the election that will usher in a new administration in the state, the big question on the lips of political observers in and outside the state is “who is the rallying point of the opposition?” Going by the provisions of the Electoral Law, the election must be held 60 days before the inauguration of the governor. The inauguration will, however, have to be done by February 24, 2013, so the election must be held on or before November 23, 2012.

Unlike the two scenarios that brought Agagu and Mimko into power, there is no clear-cut figure leading the opposition in the state and this has further put a question mark on the level of seriousness of the opposition in the state.

In the ACN, no fewer than 20 people are jostling to be governor with only two or three of them being seen as the most serious. But it has always been argued that the high number of the aspirants can spell doom for the party when it eventually settles for one of them. Characteristic of the party, people are expecting them to just choose one of the scores of aspirants without conducting any primary. After doing this, what becomes of those that the door would be shut against?

By the time the party decides to choose a candidate that will serve as its rallying point, it may also have to be contending with solving the crisis that may accompany selecting its candidate.

On the other hand, the PDP appeared not to be deeply involved in the politics of the opposition in the state. The party, in recent times, has been passive and many of its leaders seem not to be convinced that it can go into an election and win. For now, none of its members, except Niran Oladunni, has publicly declared intention to contest the governorship seat. Many names like Victor Olabimtan and Alaba Isijola are being touted, but they are yet to make their move known to the people.

As the situation is in the state now, the only party that seems to have a rallying  point is the LP, which has settled for Mimiko as its point-man, while the opposition which suppose to be dictating the pace, appears not to be ready for the task ahead.