Now that the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) endorsed zoning for the 2011 presidential election, Northern Bureau Chief, Hassan Ibrahim, writes on how the North is re-strategising to ensure that it holds on to power, in spite of forces within and outside the region.

The North recently   was caught in crossfire be tween protagonists of the zoning formula and  those opposed to it. The contentious political issue had succeeded in causing a rift between chieftains of the Pan-Northern socio-cultural organisation and voice of the North in contemporary Nigeria, the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF). Even the Northern Governors’ Forum, a group that has a role to play in determining the political future of the North in 2011, appeared divided on the issue if recent reports on its deliberations in Kaduna were anything to go by.

Respite, however, seems to have come the way of the North as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), at its last meeting in Abuja, endorsed zoning for the 2011 elections, but also declared that President Goodluck Jonathan was free to use the Yar’Adua/Jonathan ticket to seek for the Presidency in 2011. Before then, the ACF, at an emergency meeting chaired by the chairman of its Board of Trustees, General Jeremiah Useni (rtd), endorsed the zoning formula when it resolved that all political parties should endeavour to field northern candidates for the 2011 presidential election.

Now, the coast seems to be clear for northern presidential aspirants as they now enjoy support from the home front, unlike what obtained in the recent past. The only major voice against ACF’s decision was, surprisingly, the chairman of its National Working Committee, Major General Ibrahim Haruna (rtd), who did not attend the last meeting for obvious reasons.

Haruna was not happy with the resolution, alleging that the preamble to the constitution of the ACF had been misinterpreted by those who willy-nilly spearheaded the pushing of ACF into the political arena instead of finding ways of solving the problems without jumping into the political arena as if ACF is a political authority rather than a persuasive body.

From the time of late President Umaru Yar’Adua’s illness up to his death, the ACF appeared to be on the side of Jonathan in all discourse. Pundits were of the view that Haruna would have preferred the body to maintain its stand or remain neutral in the interest of national unity. For now, the forum has overwhelmingly overruled Haruna and his apologists. 

Until the PDP clarified that zoning be maintained, those eyeing the presidency on the platform of the PDP were disturbed by the purported ambition of President Jonathan. Now that the doors have been thrown open for the 2011 presidential race, political activities have heightened in the region and interest groups are rallying round   the three major contenders from the North and mobilising for further support. Within the PDP, former Military President, General Ibrahim Babangida and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar have of late, officially signified their intention to vie for the exalted seat.

Similarly, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), who left the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) due to certain internal contradictions in the party, has moved to the newly formed Congress for Progressive Change (CPP) and has not relented in his efforts in mobilising for votes at the grassroots to ensure that he wins the presidency, come 2011.

Although many in the North would have preferred a generational change in leadership, the younger ones could not for now, present anybody from their fold. Speculations that the duo of Malam Nasir el-Rufa’i, former FCT Minister and foremost anti-corruption czar, Nuhu Ribadu, could be presented as a replacement for the “recycled Northern leaders,” still remains at that level as there is no solid pronouncement in that respect for now. 

According to a source, two other names have been added in the ongoing move for power to shift from the old to the young in the North. Chairman of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum and Governor of Kwara State, Dr. Bukola Saraki and Governor Danjuma Goje of Gombe State are favoured because of their political clout and what they achieved in their respective states. This could be why, in recent times,  some groups in the North that comprised youths started a campaign to dissuade the “recycled leaders” from staging a comeback in 2011.

Disturbed by the decision of  Babangida,  Buhari and Atiku Abubakar to contest the 2011 presidential election, a group, the Arewa Progressive Union (APU), has said that it was set to organise series of protest marches across the 19 states in the North against the trio.

The group said after several years of northern leadership of Nigeria, the North did not have anything to show for it except that the individuals concerned and their families and friends continued to flaunt their ill-gotten wealth.

But Babangiba and Atiku have so far remained resolute in their quest for the presidency. In spite of all the seeming obstacles,  Muhammed Kolo, a loyalist of the former military president, said  Babangida would win in at least 32 states of the federation in the PDP primaries and go ahead to win the 2011 presidential election.

Kolo, who had addressed series of rallies in support of Babangida, said:  “We are happy with the arrangement of conducting the presidential primaries in the states at the same time, that is when the boys will be separated from men.”

In Niger State, Babangida’s home state, Governor Muazu Babangida Aliyu has declared that Babangida remained the candidate of the state for the presidency. 

For Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, his return to the PDP has been enmeshed in a controversy. But like always, he has remained a dogged fighter and has even gone ahead to declare his ambition for the coveted seat on the platform of the PDP. However, while the issue  of waiver to qualify him to vie for elective posts on PDP’s platform after his return has continued to haunt him at the national level of the party, back home in Adamawa State, a faction of the party which felt threatened by his return has continued to disown him.

For Atiku, coming into the race is just like returning to a familiar terrain. He may no longer be in the Action Congress Nigeria (ACN), a party he helped to nurture, but he has strong contacts in the party who will leave no stone unturned to make sure that  he realises his ambition, if given the chance. The Turaki of Adamawa could at anytime oil the machinery of the  defunct Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) to also work in his favour being a pioneer member and co-founder.

The North is now busy re-strategising to ensure that it holds on to power. One of its elders and former minister of finance, Malam Adamu Ciroma, has reiterated that the North would not give away the presidency in 2011 because of the power rotation policy of the PDP. 

He said any attempt to jettison the arrangement would provoke unpleasant consequences and advised that the North should be allowed to produce the presidential candidate of the ruling party for next year’s elections in the interest of fairness and justice and in conformity with an executed agreement.

For now, the Ciroma group and the Solomon Lar group that was opposed to zoning are said to be putting heads together on the future direction of the North against 2011.

The outcome would, for some time, either help in consolidating the region politically or give way to a development that would make brothers perceive one another as aliens in the same territory.