With the pronouncement of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) that governorship election will hold in 32 states including Kogi next year, Johnson Babajide analyses the situation and X-rays the chances of the aspirants as the countdown to the party primaries begins.

The coast is becoming clearer in the race to Lugard House, the administrative and political seat of Kogi State, following the pronouncement by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) last week, that the much-touted governorship election tentatively fixed for January next year, will now hold in 32 states of the federation, including Kogi State. Aspirants to the state’s most exalted seat had gone solo due to the controversy surrounding the tenure of the incumbent governor, Alhaji Ibrahim Idris, but the drumbeat seems to have become louder with the pronouncement of the electoral body in the advertisement  placed in some national dailies last week.

Within the last few days since the announcement was made, a few governorship aspirants had besieged the state party secretariat to submit their letters of intent, while political activities had assumed a very interesting dimension, with each aspirant evolving series of strategies to outwit the others. But while the coast seems to have cleared, the political class is in a dilemma on how to solve the problem of power rotation which the two senatorial districts of the state have been agitating for over the years. The central and western senatorial districts, respectively, have been contesting the continued domination of the Igalas since the creation of the state 19 years ago; while some are going violent about this, many are employing dialogue to resolve the thorny issue.

Yet, the Igalas, despite the long agitation by other ethnic groups, seem unprepared to shift ground for now. In fact, many aspirants from this area have signified their interest in occupying the plum seat, and the incumbent governor  is not helping matters, as he has adopted a siddon look attitude and ignored the persistent clamour for the convening of a political summit where this issue could be sorted out once and for all, a development which Alhaji Momoh described as a clear departure from his (Governor Idris) campaign promise in 2003. ‘Is he not the one who vowed to ensure that power rotated after his tenure?’’ Momoh queried.

But the opposition parties in the state, under the platform of the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP),  described the agitation as the ruling party’s gimmick to continue to oppress the people of the state, but noted that the opposition parties “would only consider a candidate that possesses those natural qualities of patriotism, vision, honesty, humbleness and meekness to meet up with the dynamic nature of the world.’’

Nevertheless, the number of governorship aspirants continue to swell by the day, with each selling his vision and mission to the leaders of thought across the state, while the traditional class and the masses are watching  with keen interest. The consequence of this is that the pendulum has continued to swing day by day, as the aspirants roll out their manifestoes.

Currently, no fewer than 15 aspirants have now lined up for the state’s plum seat, among them are; the Secretary to the state government, Alhaji Musa Ahmadu, A philanthropist Isah Okutepa, Senator Nicholas Ugbane, Air Vice-Marshal Atta Awodi [rtd], Chief Abiodun Ojo, the Commissioner for Agriculture; Rt Hon Clarence Olafemi, Speaker, Kogi State House of Assembly, former Deputy Chief of Staff in the presidency, Chief Sola Akanmode . Also in the list are former minister and Attorney General Justice under Obasanjo regime, Chief Bayo Ojo, the deputy governor, Chief Philip Salawu, the executive director, Newswatch Magazine, Yakubu Mohammed, Professor Abdullahi,  and Aliyu Zakari Jiya, who is contesting on the platform of the ACN  and host of others.

What makes the game tick and interesting now is the manner the ethnic groups are strategising to produce an aspirant who is sellable across the state and who can emerge as the PDP standard  bearer during the primaries expected to hold soon. It is  obvious that whoever emerges the PDP candidate will become the next governor of the state, whether power rotates or not. For instance, in the eastern senatorial district, the battle has been narrowed down to the Dekina axis, the Ankpa and Idah axes having already produced governors. Alhough the central axis has only two aspirants, investigation revealed that efforts are been intensifying to ensure that only one person emerged from each of the zone.

The western senatorial district seems to have the highest aspirant with no fewer than eight people already signifying their interest. Out of this figure, four aspirants are from the Ijumu local government area of the state, the area now known as the hotbed of Kogi politics. Following the array of aspirants from this flank, a shadow primary may likely hold to determine who the zone will present for the party primaries holding in capital city very soon. According to information pieced together, the zone is expected to hold the shadow primaries in each of the three federal constituencies; Kabba/Bunu/Ijumu, Yagba and Lokoja/Koto-Karfe. This arrangement, according to source, was said to have been dismissed by one of the aspirants.

Consequently, political analysts and opinion moulders were of the view that, since the issue of power rotation was yet to be resolved, the delegates should look look at the personality of each of the aspirants across the state. ‘’We need someone who is well exposed, humble, learned, honesty, patriotic, visionary  and, if possible, internationally connected, to be able to bring the desired growth to our dear state,’’ said Comrade Alpha.

In the words of Alpha,  the problem always begin with the delegates to the party congress who prefer to go for highest bidder without looking inwards. he attributed the problem of having credible candidate to the lustful desire of the party delegates, ‘is it the masses that produce the candidate during the primaries, this is the responsibility of delegates, we are at their mercy, but my appeal to them is that they should think beyond their primordial interest and consider the interest of the masses, for me now, among those who are parading themselves are the money bags who already have credibility problem and if these people can be eased out from the primaries, then the problem is half solved.’’

Comrade Isaiah Idris, a political commentator in the state, singled out the former Minister of Justice and Attorney General of the federation, Chief Bayo Ojo, and the erudite journalist, Yakubu Mohammed, as the only aspirant among the lot who could adequately fit in into the number one seat. He, however, placed emphasis on Bayo Ojo. ‘’I’m from the central senatorial district of this state, and sentiment apart, among all those jostling to succeed Governor Idris next year, only  Chief  Bayo Ojo can adequately deliver the desired democratic dividends we so much yearn for in the state. We need someone with high credentials and a wealth of experience, who could rub shoulders with his counterparts not only within the country but also internationally.’’

A cross section who spoke on the aspirants however gave the former president of the Nigerian Bar Association an edge over other contestants, but expressed concern about whether the Nigerian factor could ensure his emergence, while some were of the view that he does not have the political structure on ground to actualize his ambition. ‘’This man does not have any political structure on ground to actualize his dream, but if the truth must be told, we don’t need any other person at this time but Bayo Ojo,’’ Ochepa said.