IT emerged from the presidency, this week, that President Goodluck Jonathan may not be completely comfortable with the open campaign by his aides for him to contest next year’s presidential election under the ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

One of his Senior Special Assistants, Oronto Douglas, claimed that the president had instructed such aides to hands off the campaign, even though he failed to clearly indicate whether the nation’s number one citizen would also want every other person involved to also hang his/her gloves.

It is difficult to fathom what informed the revelation, but suffice it to say that it might have come too late in the day. However, one thinking is that the presidency feels satisfied enough that the move to draft President Jonathan into the race can be sufficiently championed by other individuals, groups and organisations such that the direct involvement of people directly linked to the president is not necessary. Another is that President Jonathan would prefer a situation where it is believed that he, himself, has very little to do with the decision to contest the election, if eventually he becomes the candidate of the PDP. These are mere conjectures, but the real reason may yet be unveiled by time.

The cloud surrounding Douglas’ statement is part of the uncertainty the nation has learnt to grapple with since the demise of President Umaru Yar’Adua, which is affecting political configurations in the PDP. The general election may hold in January, assuming the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) secures its expressed financial requirement, but as far as the PDP is concerned, it is still early to engage in politicking. Political office aspirants may declare interest, but are not allowed to engage in open campaign for the offices they seek because the party will say it is yet to release the necessary guidelines for that.  Why has the PDP not released the guidelines, knowing that elections are a just few months away? Who benefits from the ongoing delay? Some people think that there is just one reason for this. They say that it is meant to wrong-foot opponents of the PDP or other presidential aspirants in the party.

There have been suggestions that the delay is deliberately contrived to unbalance individuals interested in the presidential ticket outside President Jonathan, who it may become too late for to have any meaningful preparations when the whistle is eventually blown. The only person in the PDP who has a semblance of a well organised campaign on a nationwide scale at the moment is President Jonathan, represented by the numerous campaign groups with national officers,state coordinators, national and state offices.

Former military president, General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar are the only other significant fellows that have suggested in the party that they will be in the race. But up till this moment, their attempt to secure the party’s ticket is, at best, half-hearted.   If President Jonathan were to succumb to the pressure for him to contest today, it is difficult to understand how other aspirants will catch up with the extent of his preparations.

It would appear, too, that other political parties are waiting for the PDP to make its move before they act. The All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) is battling with internal power struggle and hardly has the time to think about the general election. The Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA) has collapsed. Nobody is sure of the position of the Action Congress (AC), while the fledgling Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) belonging to former military dictator, Major General Muhammadu Buhari, is busy complicating the political permutations of the North.

These parties are primed to succumb to the deceit of the PDP, which may already have its candidate with a well-oiled finance and administrative structure and ready to go into election. But this does not detract from the uncertainty enveloping the political process.  There is suspense because President Jonathan will not openly say whether or not he will stand for the election, so as to give a clear direction to other political actors.  He fears that early pronouncement on the position will either heat up the polity or render him a lame-duck leader depending on the option. This argument has become untenable now because elections must hold and the nation has to be prepared.

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