WITHOUT any prejudice to the merits and veracity of the claims and counterclaims on the petrol subsidy divide, it is somehow obvious that the country was plunged into an avoidable crisis, misery and pain by the conduct of both the Federal Government and organised labour such that the losses so occasioned, both in human and financial terms, have been monumental.

THE Federal Government initiated the  crisis and misery by calling its own integrity into question. By a sleight of hand, the Jonathan administration ambushed Nigerians in the New Year  when it hiked the pump price of fuel by at least 113 per cent thus removing the controversial petrol subsidy. It is difficult to fathom what the government anticipated of the people’s reaction to this obviously obnoxious move, especially by a democratically elected government which had previously told the people that it was still consulting with stakeholders on the policy.

DID the government expect a docile acquiescence from the people despite the earlier warnings of the labour unions?  Or did it deliberately go for broke by daring them? And if the government must hike the pump price of fuel, must it be at such an inauspicious time as when it was having a hard time battling the Boko Haram? What was the wisdom in battling the menace of Boko Haram and taunting a major labour strike at the same time?

USING conservative estimates, some experts said the economic cost of the weeklong strike may be more than $1 billion per day. This is a huge cost for an economy that does not work efficiently even at full throttle or one whose people are said to live on $2 dollars per day. It therefore means that the strike must have had a negative effect on whatever advantages the Jonathan administration expected to accrue from the removal of the subsidy.

EQUALLY, the political cost was monumental. President Goodluck Jonathan who was largely perceived by a big section of the Nigerian populace as fresh air from Nigeria’s suffocating past, thus necessitating the need to rally behind him during his difficult times with the atrocious cabal in Yar’Adua’s presidency, blew a lot of trust and goodwill when he did what even military dictators would have hesitated to contemplate. The people must have wondered if the president, in his moment of hurriedly fatal decision, thought of the massive votes of the people behind his presidency and how he eventually spurned these voters in his New Year’s Day subterfuge. His promise to put timing into consideration in future policy pronuncements show that he has certainly learnt his lesson.

IN states like Oyo and Niger, the protest so threatened the security there that the state governments had to impose a curfew. In Oyo state, miscreants and hoodlums  hijacked the protest as they looted freely and some officers of security agencies were attacked by these desperate miscreants turned loose on the society. There were also reported cases of arson, extortion and even robberies committed by these hoodlums. This should not have been so if labour, human rights activists and the civil society groups who called for the protests had done their homework well by engaging these idle hands constructively.

THE bonfires made, especially by hoodlums on the roads during the protests to prevent vehicular movements not only affected such roads adversely, they also constituted health hazards to those who inhaled the dusts blown into the air eventually. We believe that it is possible to conduct a peaceful protest without losing any human life  but as it happened, some people died during the weeklong protest and this was most unfortunate.

AS it has now turned out, it is difficult to see any gains from the avoidable protest to either side. Obviously it ensued from very poor thinking and it was also poorly executed. The unorganised private sector, which for now contributes significantly to the country’s economy was also railroaded into the protest and this heightened the private financial woes of these individuals.

THERE is every reason to believe that the social condition of Nigeria now can hardly tolerate ill-advised policies and poorly planned protests such as Nigerians have just been subjected to. Dialogue and good sense must be seen to prevail in order to serve the larger interests of the people and deal with the major roots of crimes in Nigeria.

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THE OIL SUBSIDY PROTESTS- GAINS AND LOSSES, YET TO BE JUDGED
written by BLESSING LUCY EKEOCHA, February 15, 2012

The protest may have come and gone but yet it is still in the mind of people. some people believe there was no need for the protest in the first place while others believe it was worth the struggle.
Today we sit and count the losses and like the first writer, enormous disadvantages were highlighted. Yes we know we lost money during the period. our ports were shut down, markets were closed,businesses lost, some investors left the country and worst still a couple of people died in the whole period. I very much agree with all these but in my own opinion i do not think that we had no lessons to learn during the period. I equally will want to differ a little from the analyst who said there are no gains on both sides. Of course, there are not really enough gains at the immediate time, but in the near future we will see changes. i strongly believe this. My sincere regret to the souls we lost especially, may their soul rest in peace. I would like to say that although the government took a rather military approach to the entire process but it meant well for the future of this great nation (if it will keep its promises). The infrastructure, health care, and development we need will be easier achieved when more fund is in our purse. With the cost of fuel higher than before, we stand to get more investors come in to build more refineries and help the sector. We can not continue to subsidize fuel and sell less while some countries nearby sell higher because of the fuel people smuggle out of our borders.
Remember that even the key stakeholders in Trade Union congress, TUC and the Nigerian Labour Congress, NLC; were all in support of the removal, the only issue was the timing. they all believed that Nigerians needed to be properly briefed before the removal. The protest was necessary to get Government's commitment to say what they would do. If the government had not removed the subsidy or if the masses, NLC, TUC decided not to protest at all, neither of it would have helped us in any way.
My advice is that we have patience and believe that this government will do as it has promised to. It is not even up to 6 months so we may not really be in a hurry to judge that there were no gains from either side. I strongly respect everyone who has a contrary view but let us at least give some more time before we can judge.

BLESSING EKEOCHA
DEPT OF MASS COMMUNICATION
CALEB UNIVERSITY, LAGOS

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