2011: The early battle for Kano’s soul

Abubakar Rimi

Festus Ojudun writes on the recent reconciliation among Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) stalwarts in Kano State and concludes that it is an indication of what is to come in 2011.

A new wave of realignment of political forces has blown across the political landscape in Kano State. It stemmed from the reconciliatory efforts by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which appears to be preparing the grounds to re-establish its hold in the North.

When the PDP inaugurated a National Reconciliation Committee (NRC) with the aim of reconciling aggrieved members of the party, not many people thought it would diffuse to the regional and state levels. Today, the move appears to be transcending national politics and has rekindled a new wave of reconciliation across the country.

The aim of the NRC was to mediate and offer olive branches to the aggrieved former members of the party in order to bring them back into the fold.

One of the states where members of the party appear to have realised the salience of a united front to their success in elections is Kano. Former governor of old Kano State, Alhaji Abubakar Rimi; another former governor between 1999 and 2003, Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso; and former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Alhaji Ghali Na’Abba, recently put their differences aside and embraced unity as their new watchword.

Kano State PDP chairman, Senator Jubril Doguwa, had organised the reconciliatory meeting at the party secretariat in Kano last Monday. The previously antagonistic party stalwarts have now adopted reconciliation as their singsong and their supporters seem contented with the new found political romance.

When in 2003, the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) governorship candidate in the state, Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, in a show of political dexterity, outsmarted the PDP hawks to deny the then incumbent, Kwankwaso, of a second tenure, a shock wave was sent across the length and breath of the country. The upset was a surprise to onlookers who thought that incumbency factor plus the party control at the federal level should have made a second term sure for Kwankwaso.

But others who were familiar with the torrents of Kano politics were convinced that the internal supremacy battle in Kano PDP at that time was responsible for the party’s loss.

Last May, Shekarau consolidated on the 2003 feat to set a record as the first civilian to govern the state for two consecutive tenures. But PDP members appear to have woken up from their slumber and may have reconciled to give Shekarau a hot contest in 2011.

Speaking at the peace parley, Senator Doguwa said the best way to wrest power from the incumbent was to resolve the differences among party stalwarts.

“We unite in order to re-align Kano back to the mainstream of national politics of unity, peace and development so as to preserve our political legacy of politics of ideology rather than violence and intimidation,” he said.

It would be recalled that things had fallen apart in the state when Kwankwaso fell out with Rimi, and later Na’Abba. The tussle was wreathing in a controversy in which former President Olusegun Obasanjo reportedly played a prominent role.

Hence, Rimi and Na’Abba, who had stopped being friends of the presidency in the post-2003 general election era allegedly thwarted Kwankwaso’s bid to return to the Kano Government House in 2003, opening a window of opportunity for the ANPP to coast home to victory.

Rimi and Na’Abba were later to dump the PDP for the Action Congress (AC) in the build-up to last year’s election. Both worked for the AC in the election but were unable to overpower the overbearing force of the ANPP in the elections. Though many analysts have described their constant change of party affiliation as reflective of a ‘I want to belong’ attitude, the view of commentators appears not to deter the duo.

Reliable sources had hinted of earlier moves to melt the ice of discord especially between Kwankwaso and Rimi. Jigawa State governor, Sule Lamido, was said to be the brain behind moves to ensure the duo were reconciled. He was said to have spearheaded, alongside other prominent leaders, efforts that culmin- ated in the return of Rimi and Na’Abba to the PDP late last year. That he played this role was not surprising since Rimi was, and perhaps still is, one of his foremost political companions, moreso as Jigawa State was carved out of old Kano State in 1991.

With the latest move, it seems the scheming for 2011 has already begun. Nothing more could have confirmed this than Senator Doguwa’s statement that “given the unity, the PDP will give Governor Shekarau a short notice to vacate the Government House”.

Already, PDP supporters are said to have thrown their weight behind the resolve of their leaders to unite members of the state chapter of the party. With a united front now guaranteed for Kano PDP, or so it seems, the ANPP may have to work harder than it did in 2003 and 2007 to retain the state in 2011.

But Shekarau and his political allies are no novices in Kano State politics. They have proved twice that they are familiar with the political terrain and are ready to consolidate on their achievements. Shekarau seems to possess the political skills that outwitted Kwankwaso in 2003 and the dexterity that helped him overcome the ‘no two consecutive terms’ jinx in Kano politics. Whether these skills are enough for the 2011 contest may be too early to determine because many more political re-alignments are bound to occur between now and then, but the status quo puts the PDP in a formidable position to give Shekarau a good fight.

The ongoing fisticuff among ANPP leaders may not help matters for Shekarau. The party’s presidential candidate, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd.), and its leadership have been divided along lines of conflict for quite a while. The division is threatening to whittle down ANPP’s hold in the states it controls and may become the Archiles heels of political consolidation for ANPP leaders.

Though no serious crack has surfaced in Kano ANPP, indications are that the division at the national level could diffuse into the state. How Shekarau will manage the logjam in ANPP and contend with a more formidable PDP in 2011 is what analysts are waiting to see. If he wriggles out, he may become the new ‘king of the coast’ in Kano State. Kwankwaso boasts a large followership in Kano politics, though this was not enough to secure him a second term in 2003. Rimi’s loyalists are also said to have established their tentacles in many parts of the state and may have the strength to sway public opinion to the PDP candidate that would contest the governorship election in 2011.

The same applies to Na’Abba, whose stewardship in the National Assembly has made him a leader of sort in Kano politics. These three forces combined will, indeed, form a fearsome machinery capable of overturning the status quo in Kano politics. However, any sudden crack in the state chapter of PDP, just like that which occurred in the build-up to the 2003 elections, could make nonsense of the reconciliatory efforts and could relaunch party members into crisis zone.

The stage is gradually getting set and the stakes are becoming higher, the destination is 2011.