News Analysis: Before the tribunal speaks

By Sina Oladeinde - 26.02.2008

THE eyes of the world are on Nigeria. But that should not be unexpected. Nigeria, the country with the largest concentration of blacks in the world, should, ordinarily, attract the attention of the world to itself; whatever happens to it, good or bad, should naturally excite the rest of the world.

Nigeria, naturally, should wield enormous authority and command great respect among other countries of the world for its vast human and natural resources. Unfortunately, the kind of attention that the nation has been attracting to itself is not of the noble kind. It is the kind of attention one gives to a highly gifted person but who is dangerously prone to self-destruct, which elicits amusement and/or pity.

It is that kind of attention-amusement and pity- that Nigeria is getting today; amusement that a populous country like Nigeria is not taking advantage of its strength and is being knocked about by undemocratic forces.

The pity, however, is that in spite of the country’s enormous human resources, Nigerians are still being led by the nose by shallow-minded leaders.

Therefore, the question the whole world, including Nigerians, are asking is: will the centre hold for this highly resourceful but self-destructing country when its fledgling democracy is put through its most difficult test ever?

Today, as the presidential election petition tribunal, headed by Justice James Ogebe, delivers judgment in the petitions challenging the election of President Umaru Yar’Adua, some of the questions that will be agitating the minds of most Nigerians are how did the country, with its vast human and natural resources, get to the present political cul-de-sac? How did it allow itself to be boxed into this unfortunate corner where it could suffer an irrecoverable knockout? What happens eventually should Justice Ogebe’s tribunal declare the election that brought in President Yar’Adua greatly flawed and order a new election? What would also happen should the same tribunal uphold the election of Yar’Adua and throw out the petitions of General Muhammadu Buhari, the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) presidential candidate, and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, the Action Congress presidential candidate? Should such a decision not sound the death knell for the nation’s floundering democracy, especially when viewed against the evidence that the 2007 general election was greatly marked with irregularities?

Though the answers to these questions have a great import on the future of Nigeria and Nigerians, the event of today will influence the thinking of the other countries and their understanding of Nigeria and its problems.

Nigeria’s journey to the current cul-de-sac did not begin with the April 21, 2007, presidential election; it started long before then. It began with the unguarded outburst of the former president, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, who made a declaration of war by calling the 2007 general election a “do-or-die” affair.

The former president unrepentantly did not sheathe his sword; he went about threatening “war” and even declaring victory before the real battle began.

The confidence of a marauding pirate, which the former president displayed throughout the election period, and his unrepentance when he was confronted over his “do-or-die” declaration, triggered suspicion in the opposition groups that the elections would not be free and fair and that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had concluded plans to rig the elections in its favour.

There was also the part played by the Professor Maurice Iwu-led Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). There were protestations from the opposition parties and civil society groups that INEC had taken sides, that it was not the unbiased umpire that it was expected to be. The INEC was also accused of lack of preparedness by Alhaji Abubakar, the presidential standard-bearer of the Action Congress (AC), especially over the protracted battle to disqualify the former vice-president from contesting the election. The Iwu-led INEC, unfortunately, failed to allay the fears of the critical public through its actions.

At a point, the INEC was acting as an appendage of the ruling party, joining itself to the party in contestable legal matters and even, sometimes, advancing the interests of the ruling political party when it was expected to be neutral.

All these created ridges and gullies in a political field that should have been levelled for all contestants to play in. When eventually the elections were held in April, there was a massive outcry, especially from members of the opposition political parties and, importantly, from the international observers. The European Union’s observer team, for instance, decried what they termed massive electoral frauds that marred the overall elections. They even joined the aggrieved opposition parties and the civil society groups to call for the cancellation of the elections.

As in the other elections, Alhaji Yar’Adua, the PDP standard-bearer, recorded such a landslide victory that left General Buhari, Alhaji Atiku and other contestants dumbfounded. They accused the PDP and Yar’Adua of underhand dealings. They said Yar’Adua and his party did not win fair, that the presidential election was rigged. Both Buhari and Abubakar, for instance, claimed they had overwhelming evidence that would show the whole world that the horse that Yar’Adua rode to power had terrible deformities. So they headed to the tribunal to seek redress.

The contestants before this day had been expressing optimism about the solidity of their cases. While both Buhari and Atiku believe they have built a solid arsenal that will dismantle Yar’Adua’s house of straw, the president has been exuding confidence. He is claiming he has enough defence that will withstand any offensive. He boasts he will be declared the legitimate winner of the 2007 presidential election by the Justice Ogebe-led tribunal.

But the Nigerian public and the world at large do not appear to share this optimism. They are apprehensive of what will happen to the country eventually, should the decision go either way. The decision will definitely go either way. But would it be for a new election or would the court give Yar’Adua victory, after the president’s open admission that the election that brought him to power was indeed flawed?

But whatever happens today inside Justice Ogebe’s court will have a great impact on what eventually becomes of Nigeria, its democracy and future. The world watches.