Why Nyako will win in Adamawa again

Murtala NyakoAs the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) conducts a fresh governorship election in Adamawa State tomorrow, Dan Akpovwa writes on the chances of the two frontrunners – Admiral Murtala Nyako of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Ibrahim Bapetel of the Action Congress (AC) – in the election.

I read with more than a passive interest Chuks Okocha’s analysis on the “Undercurrents of Adamawa Guber Contest” published in ThisDay of Monday April 21, 2008 (Page 20) and came away with the conclusion that the man is very knowledgeable about the politics of that state. Okocha’s conclusion in the last line that the “the outcome (of the re-run election), from all indications is too close to call” is very far from the truth. As a journalist who has travelled extensively in the Adamawa State, I am inclined to disagree.

On paper, the court ordered rerun of the Adamawa governorship election of this Saturday, 26th April, is a contest between the ousted governor and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Admiral Murtala Nyako (rtd.) and Alhaji Ibrahim Bapetel. But a look at the bigger picture will reveal that what is at stake is the very political relevance of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, erstwhile vice president during the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo and his side kick, former Governor Boni Haruna. In the 1999 and 2003 elections, the PDP was the dominant party and what seemed like their unity of purpose helped them win the elections on both occasions. All the political heavyweights in the state were in the PDP then led by Atiku Abubakar. Others were Bamanga Tukur, former Gongola governor, Professor Jibril Aminu; a senator and former Minister, Senator Mahmud Waziri, Ambassador Hassan Adamu, the Wakilin Adamawa and former Nigerian Ambassador to the United States, Senator Iya Abubakar, to mention a few.

But in the post-2003 era, the once united PDP has disintegrated. Notably, Atiku had decamped to the Action Congress (AC). His persecution by his former boss brought him some sympathisers. There was a time when many people felt if the elections were held, the AC might have won largely due to the influence of Atiku and former Governor Haruna. Both men were the leading lights of AC in Adamawa State. However, unproven allegations of corruption levelled against Atiku helped to demystify the former vice president and whittle down his powers as a leader. The result? His supporters began to desert him. Though his position as the former vice president conferred on him the status of a national leader, but by the time Obasanjo “finished” with him, Atiku was reduced to a “state” leader. People who looked up to him to provide leadership and direction for their cause found none. By the time he washed ashore up like a piece of driftwood in Adamawa politics, people like Professor Jubril Aminu, Professor Iya Abubakar, Ambassadors Hassan Adamu and Dan Suleiman had grown in stature and influence. These distinguished gentlemen are all for Nyako’s re-election and they are campaigning with him in every nook and cranny of the state.

On a recent visit to Adamawa State, it was obvious that the majority of the populace were with Team Nyako. Many people spoken to said that Alhaji Bapetel would have stood a better chance if he was not running on AC ticket. For one, he is viewed as a key member of the Haruna administration that did not perform in the eight years he ruled. The talk among neutral indigenes was that the only development that could be attributed to Haruna was the development of the ABTI University, a private university owned by Atiku. In contrast, in the nine months that Nyako was governor, he embarked on a massive road rehabilitation programme in the state. Dualisation of the Airport Road for instance is being done by the ousted Nyako regime. He also provided pipe-borne water for the old Yola and Jimeta areas as well as Mubi, places that never had water in the eight years of Haruna’s administration. These are some of the issues that will make the PDP candidate win the re-election tomorrow.

This may also explain in part why Nyako and his campaign team were always well received on the campaign train. I observed them in Yola, Numan, Guyuk, Lamorde, Michika and Hong and the turnouts were huge. I tried to also follow the AC campaign of Bapetel but could not locate them. On my trip to Adamawa, one thing was clear: Atiku has since lost relevance in the state. His relevance and “imaginary influence” are only on the pages of newspapers. As we all know, he has a formidable public relations machine. The death knell for Atiku as a politician was sounded over three years ago. What we have seen since then was a Rites of Passage of a once astute politician. His total demystification and ultimate political death will be completed tomorrow when the PDP and its candidate, Nyako, win the rerun election by a landslide.

•Akpovwa, a journalist and publisher, sent this piece from Abuja