It’s Raining Again! What Meteorologists Say

By Laolu Harolds & Bayo Alade

House destroyed by rain. Photo: Peter EmiolaGenerally, the rain is usually considered as a blessing. Farmers long for it, as its onset signifies the start of the planting season. In fact, among the people of the Western Region of Nigeria, there are even some fruits that are not considered ripe enough for human consumption until after the first rains, though this may lack a scientific basis.

For the ordinary people on the street, the coming of rains is a welcome relieve from the scorching sun and the attendant heat during this period. But that is as far as the honeymoon goes. For some people now, the dark clouds mean nothing else but misery… Rain clouds, for some people, are no longer attractive, no thanks to the violent storm that swept through, notably, the ancient city of Ibadan and Ado Ekiti, Ekiti State, about two weeks ago, leaving unbelievable devastation in its wake, including loss of lives.

As at the last count, in Ibadan alone, more than 100 buildings and other structures experienced different stages of destruction in that twilight stormy rain - including roofs literally blown off, giant gates torn off their hinges, electric poles, residential and school fences pulled down. The nature and timing of that rain (and subsequent ones as well since then) rather than generate excitement among the people have raised a lot of questions. Could the devastation be a direct result of man's meddlesomeness with nature? This is particularly significant in that the affected zone is noted for activities of professional 'rain makers' who make a fortune out of determining where and when rains should fall.

Chief Liadi Akanbi, a community leader in the Ogbere-Agugu area of Ibadan personally believes that that violent rain was nothing but a result of man standing in the way of nature. "No man can gag nature for too long without dire repercussions," (he told Saturday Tribune emphatically in Yoruba language). Incidentally, on the stormy day in question, one of the two bungalows in his compound had its roof blown off. The electric pole at the periphery of the compound was pulled down as well.

But while many may dismiss such views as uninformed and unscientific, could there be a technical explanation to why such level of devastation witnessed that week was not visited on coastal areas like Lagos where, quite naturally, wave action from the sea is expected to generate considerably strong winds in events of such rains? Also given the fact that the onset of rainfall every year brings with it speculations about what the pattern may be for the rest of the year, what effects would these early rains (if indeed they are early) have on food production?

Alhaji Yusuf, a lecturer at the College of Agriculture, Institute of Agricultural Research and Training (IAR&T) Ibadan, believes the onset of rainfall this year has been normal. He, however, noted that the seemingly early but normal rainfall may induce farmers to go ahead to start planting their crops. The danger in this, he added, is that the rain may stop suddenly and may not pick up until much later, with the effect that the crops will off resulting in scarcity of food.

Another expert, Dr. Shrinkat Tagtap of the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), cautioned that farmers should pay very good attention to climatic conditions before going ahead with planting. When Saturday Tribune visited Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Lagos, in search of answers to some of these technical issues, the General Manager, Applied Meteorological Services, Mr. Nnadozie Nnoli, said there was hardly anything strange about the strong winds that accompanied the rains two weeks ago, as such is usually to be expected at the onset of rains.

"Usually, once it's time for rains to start, it's accompanied with what is called thunderstorms. This is characteristic of the onset of rains. After the first rains have set in, we have what is called the monsoon types of rains, which are not as turbulent or violent. "We notice that our rains, most of time, come from the East and move towards the West; although there is input from the south as well because of the moisture from the coast. But generally they come from the East, and also from South. But sometimes the topography or the coastal nature of Lagos tends to affect the type of rains we have there. Sometimes, you notice that rains tend to go a little bit away from Lagos. Sometimes, it would seem as if it's going to rain, then all of a sudden, it moves in; and it's always areas like Ibadan, Ijebu-Ode and so on that get it."

He, however, said he would need to do a closer study to be able to say categorically what was responsible for what happened in around Ibadan and Ekiti States on the said dates. "It's a thermo-dynamic effect. We would need to look at the pressure, the temperature at various levels to be able to know why such a thing happened. We'll look at the atmospheric temperature, pressure and humidity and so forth. That will give me some clue regarding that particular heavy rain; what must have triggered off that kind of rain. But for now, I don't know. I can't tell."

Nnoli said the agency had completed a general forecast of what is to be expected this rainy season (covering areas up to the lower North-Central region of the country), which he made available to Saturday Tribune. This, he said, might help people - including farmers - to plan appropriately. According to the data, the onset of rainy season is expected to commence sometime between 29 February and about 15 March in areas like Cross River, western Bayelsa, southern Delta region, northwestern Ondo; north-eastern, central and south-eastern Osun; north-eastern Ogun and south-eastern Akwa Ibom states. These the agency has categorized as (States 1).

Areas categorized under (States 2), where rainy season is expected to begin between March 15 and March 25 (with a long time mean onset dates being from February 19 to March 21) include eastern Yenagoa, Rivers, Imo, Abia; western Akwa-Ibom; Ebonyi; southern Anambra; south-western and central Delta; south-eastern and south-western Edo; north-eastern and south-eastern Ondo; north-eastern and south-eastern Ekiti; central and eastern Ogun; eastern Lagos; south-eastern tip of Oyo; north-western tip of Osun and south-eastern Benue. Rains in these areas are expected to start rather late.

According to NIMET's forecast, rainy season is expected to begin from 15 to 25 March in areas like eastern Yenagoa, Rivers, Imo, Abia; western Akwa-Ibom; Ebonyi; southern Anambra; south-western and central Delta; south-eastern and south-western Edo; north-eastern and south-eastern Ondo; north-eastern and south-eastern Ekiti; central and eastern Ogun; eastern Lagos; south-eastern tip of Oyo;north-weastern tip of Osun and south-eastern Benue.

Onset dates of rainy season in these locations are expected to be rather late. Rainy season is expected to begin between March 25 and April 4 in areas grouped under (States 3), including southern, central and northern Edo; central and northern Anambra; Enugu; northern tip of Delta; western Lagos; western Ogun; narrow strip of southern Oyo and southern Kogi. Onset dates of rainy season in these areas are therefore expected to be rather late (with a long-term mean onset dates being from 1 to 21 March.

In south-western Oyo and northwestern tip of Ogun, according to NIMET, rainy season will commence between April 4 and 29. The long-term mean (normal) onset dates of rainy season in these locations are from 11 to 21 March. These locations NIMET grouped under (States 4). (It should be noted that rainy season per se does not begin immediately the first rains appear; it takes like a minimum of two weeks for normal rains to stabilize and the rainy season proper commences).

According to NIMET, southern Cross River, Akwa-Ibom, southern Abia, southern Rivers and southern Bayelsa will experience the highest volume of rainfall for the month of March with expected total rainfall being from 130 to 190mm, followed by areas like northwestern Bayelsa, northwestern Rivers, central and southern Imo, central and northern Abia, northern Cross River, central and southern Delta as well as the southern tip of Ondo - which are expected to experience a total rainfall of within 100 to 130mm.

Lagos, western an southern Ogun; southern tip of Oyo; central and southern Anambra, southern tip of Enugu; north-western and south-western Ebonyi are all expected to witness a total rainfall of between 70 and 100mm. For the month of April, southern Delta and south-eastern Edo are expected to witness the highest total rainfall of between 270 and 330mm; followed by states like Bayelsa; south-eastern and northern Delta; south-western, central and northern Edo; Ogun, Anambra; southern Enugu; western Imo and central Cross River with monthly total rainfall of between 210 and 270.
Rivers, Akwa-Ibom, northern and southern Cross River, Ebonyi, northern Enugu, southern Benue, southern Kogi, central Ondo, southern Osogbo, southern tip of Oyo and central Ogun are all expected to experience an average between 150 and 210mm volume of rain in April, while central Kogi, northern Benue, Ekiti, northern Osun, southern Oyo, western Ogun and western Lagos will have 30 to 150mm of rain for the same period.

Rainy season, according to NIMET, will last for 265 to 285 days (with a long-term mean of between 250 and 290 days) in areas such as south-western Bayelsa; southern Delta; central and southern Ondo, and south-western Osun. As for the length of the rainy season, in Bayelsa; south and central Delta; southern Edo; eastern Ondo; Ekiti; southern Osun; southern tip of Oyo; eastern Ogun and eastern Lagos, the rainy season is expected to range between 245 to 265 days, while the long-term mean rainy season length is from 250 to 290 days.

Rainy season in states like Rivers, Akwa-Ibom; southern and central Cross River; Abia, Imo, southern Anambra; central and northern Edo; northern Ondo, western Kogi; southern tip of Oyo and western Ogun is expected to last for 225 to 245 days, with a long-term mean of 230 and 290 days. In northern Cross River; Ebonyi, Enugu, north-eastern Anambra; northern Edo; southern Benue and northern Oyo, the length of the rainy season is expected to be between 185 to 205 days (with a long-term range of 200 to 250 days).