Atiku: A journey into political wilderness?

Atiku AbubakarThe outcome of last Saturday’s governorship election in Adamawa State in which the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) knocked out the Action Congress (AC) may be an indication that the political relevance of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has dwindled, writes Festus Ojudun.

This is not the best of times for former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the Action Congress (AC) presidential candidate in last year’s general election. He appears to have lot grip of his home state, Adamawa, where he once held sway as a kingmaker. His status in national politics may have also dwindled if events in the last two years are anything to go by. Nothing more could have confirmed this than the outcome of last Saturday’s fresh governorship election in Adamawa State that pitted Admiral Murtala Nyako of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) against Ibrahim Bapetel of the AC.

Nyako and the PDP triumphed, knocking out Bapetel and shattering whatever it was that remained of Atiku’s stronghold in the North East state. Atiku, the AC henchman, had risen to political limelight in the early 1990s, playing a prominent role in the then Social Democratic Party (SDP). His political career had soared since then, climaxing in his eventual emergence as the nation’s number two man in 1999. Hitherto, he had remained a force in the political camp of the late Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, helping him to consolidate on his political dynasty.

Not a few Nigerians will agree less that Atiku was a staunch defender of the late Yar’Adua’s political family, a status he assumed courtesy of his perceived loyalty to the late political grandmaster. From then, his sojourn into politics had steadily been on the right path, often bringing him favour with members of his camp and those in other political camps. Soon, Atiku became one of the leaders of the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM); a political formation that later collapsed into the PDP in 1998 following the transition programme that former Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar (rtd.) midwifed.

Atiku, as events proved then, seemed to have understood the political terrain, at least, in Adamawa State and was quick to launch his campaign to become the state’s chief executive in the build up to the 1999 general election. He seemed to have grasped the nettle of Adamawa politics and ready to go the whole hog. His attitude also confirmed to many onlookers that he had the nerves of steel necessary to confront his opponents on the political battlefield. Before long, he had won the governorship primaries and later the governorship election in the state, only waiting to be sworn in as governor on May 29. His victory in the election did not come to many people as a surprise; it was a confirmation of Atiku’s steadfastness on the political terrain and acceptability by the people at the grassroots.

But fate and, perhaps, his loyalty to the late Yar’Adua brought his political ascendancy beyond the borders of Adamawa State when former President Olusegun Obasanjo and other PDP wise men picked him as Obasanjo’s running mate in the 1999 general election. Unconfirmed reports indicated that many factors influenced his choice as Obasanjo’s deputy. He was said to have remained a friend of the former president while the repressive regime of the late General Sani Abacha incarcerated Obasanjo and other Nigerians that did not support Abacha’s self-succession bid. He was also said to have been a force on the side of the common people even in the face of adversity and exigencies and most important of all, he had a political base in the North that could bring Obasanjo the necessary support to win the 1999 presidential election.

All these placed Atiku ahead of other options that the PDP leadership considered for the post of vice president in the build up to the first general election after many years of military interregnum. While Atiku saw the light at the end of the tunnel of the presidential race and was swift to decide the next stage of his political career, he did not lose grip of his home state. He maintained his stronghold over the state chapter of the PDP and helped to install former Governor Boni Haruna, one of his allies, as that state’s chief executive in 1999. He consolidated on this in the 2003 general election, a development that further confirmed him as a master tactician in the political process.

The outcome of the 1999 presidential election confirmed that the PDP leaders’ decision to choose Atiku as Obasanjo’s running mate was a joker. The Obasanjo- Atiku ticket enjoyed the support of many Northerners (going by the result of the election), unlike in the South West where the Yoruba voted massively for the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and in the South East where voting seemed divided. Between 1999 and 2003, Atiku’s skills on the political turf came to the limelight just as his ascendancy continued on the up swing. At a time, unconfirmed reports indicated that he was in control of not less than 70 per cent (at least 20 PDP governors) and had his foot soldiers in key positions in the PDP executive. A status that convinced many informed commentators that Atiku was in control of the PDP.

But the jolly ride of Atiku hit the brick wall after the 2003 general election. Before the 2003 general elections, the ranks of the PDP had been divided with not a few party chieftains preferring Atiku to contest against Obasanjo in the party’s presidential primaries in 2002. A stand-off later occurred between Atiku and his former boss over an alleged third term agenda which Atiku not only declined support for, but also mustered the oldest trick in the book to see to its death. The discord divided the presidency, the national leadership of the PDP and the Adamawa State chapter of the party, pitting Atiku against his boss and against other political heavyweights in his home state.

Events that followed were, indeed, catastrophic for the country as they brought the nation close to the brink of a political stalemate. Atiku later dumped the PDP, teamed up with other stalwarts from a faction of the AD and formed the AC, a party on which ticket he contested the presidential election in 2007. But he lost to the overbearing posturing of the PDP tacticians and, in particular, Obasanjo, who also deployed every trick in the book to cage Atiku.

Since then, Atiku, who was once on the up and up, came under the skids. That he came third in the 2007 presidential election confirmed that he had lost the grip at the national level, leaving his home state as one of his strongholds. But the event of Saturday may have shattered the remains of the pillars that held his stranglehold over Adamawa State politics. The PDP has proved that the AC can only occupy a distant second in the state’s politics. Perhaps, if the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had not disqualified Bapetel in last April’s governorship election in Adamawa State, Atiku and Boni Haruna would have made a showing. But Nyako and PDP seem to have capitalised on the advantage of a few months in the Yola Government House to rewrite the history of Adamawa State.

In Saturday’s fresh election in Adamawa, Nyako polled 361,729 votes against Bapetel’s 201,767 votes; he defeated Atiku in his local government (Jada), polling 21,232 votes against Bapetel’s 18,880. Today, Atiku can complain less about INEC since he had, few hours to the election, commended INEC for its level of preparation. “The problem is not that INEC has not gotten the manpower to conduct credible elections, but the absence of the political will to do so. By and large, based on what we saw on Friday night, I am impressed with the conduct and distribution of electoral materials by INEC,” he had said.
For Atiku, the gradual decline in his political relevance may have begun, at least, as events in the last few years have confirmed. He now appears to have lost the aces he once held tightly in Adamawa politics.

Did Atiku fiddle while Rome burned? Should he have dodged the bullet that eventually brought him into the AC? Would Atiku and AC have won the governorship election in Adamawa if Bapetel had not been disqualified in the first place? These and more are some of the questions that agitate the minds of many Nigerians. However, the most pertinent issue is the kind of future that lays in waiting for the former vice president both in national and local politics. Some political analysts are already of the view that Atiku could have started a journey into political wilderness. Whether he will re-align his interests with the statusquo or remain steadfast with his current political family or reposition his boot on the other foot or stage a comeback that would qualify to be called a bolt from the blue is what Nigerians are waiting to see.